It’s the NFL Championship game weekend, and we look ahead to the NFC and AFC showdowns on Sunday night.
Gridiron guru Ben Steele has four value picks from our #WhatOddsPaddy lines for Sunday night’s clashes. So, let’s get his best bets from the 2025 Championship games.
NFL Championship Games #WhatOddsPaddy Tips
8pm: Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles
Saquon Barkley & Brian Robinson Jr to each record 5+ rushing yards in each quarter
1+ Rushing Touchdown in Each Quarter
11:30pm: Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs
Successful 2 Point Conversion
Khalil Shakir and Travis Kelce to Combine for 250+ Receiving Yards
Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles
Saquon Barkley & Brian Robinson Jr to each record 5+ rushing yards in each quarter
The NFC Championship Game is an NFC East battle. Both games follow a similar pattern: huge Eagles success on the ground followed by a home win. Given that Sunday’s game is in Philadelphia, I’d expect more of the same.
Saquon Barkley had a combined 296 rushing yards against Washington this season, so I’m very confident he covers five yards a quarter.
Brian Robinson Jr was productive in his last visit to Philly, with 63 yards on six carries and a touchdown and while he struggled in the reverse fixture that was more down to the game state as Washington staged a sensational comeback.
Robinson and Barkley are key to their team’s game plan and should see enough regular involvement to pick up the yards.
1+ Rushing Touchdown in Each Quarter
Both teams’ success is built on the run game. Robinson and Barkley are the traditional sources, offering a considerable backfield threat. The pair have scored a combined 25 touchdowns this season, but the addition of quarterbacks Jayden Daniels and Jalen Hurts makes this 14/1 pick so appealing.
Remarkably, few running backs have scored more TDs than Hurts this season, and Daniels’s ability as a runner has made him the hot favourite to win Rookie of the Year. With at least four different runners who offer a legitimate chance to score from anywhere on the pitch at any given time, 14/1 is a great price.
Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs
Successful 2 Point Conversion
The Buffalo Bills are in the AFC Championship game because of a failed two-point conversion by the Baltimore Ravens last week and if either game is going to come down to the fine margins it is more likely to be this one.
The Kansas City Chiefs are in full playoff mode now and step one of the Chiefs playoff plan is to let Patrick Mahomes freestyle, something one of the greatest QBs to ever play the game is exceptionally good at. That usually forces teams to try to force things themselves, and Josh Allen’s Buffalo Bills have more than enough ability of their own.
Having been burnt before in Kansas City, I’d expect the Bills to be the most likely to attempt a two-point conversion but either team has the ability to score one if they need to.
Khalil Shakir and Travis Kelce to Combine for 250+ Receiving Yards
Step two of the Chiefs playoff plan is to activate Travis Kelce. In last week’s victory over the Houston Texans, Kelce had 117 receiving yards, and Mahomes only had 177 passing yards.
Kelce’s 117 yards was his ninth postseason game with over 100 receiving yards, an NFL record. Mahomes will look for his favourite target early and often, and Kelce will rack up the yards.
Mahomes, though, isn’t the only quarterback with a favourite target. Josh Allen throws to Khalil Shakir more than anybody else on the Bills roster, and Shakir, to his credit, is almost guaranteed to catch the ball when it does come his way.
While he’s not as explosive as Kelce, I would be surprised if he didn’t contribute at least 70 yards to the total. 25/1 is a big price, but in my view, you’re effectively betting on a nuclear Travis Kelce game.
#WhatOddsPaddy NFL Tips
8pm: Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles
Saquon Barkley & Brian Robinson Jr to each record 5+ rushing yards in each quarter
1+ Rushing Touchdown in Each Quarter
11:30pm: Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs
Successful 2 Point Conversion
Khalil Shakir and Travis Kelce to Combine for 250+ Receiving Yards
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
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