The Super Bowl offers one last chance for NFL fans to play on Paddy Power Fantasy, making it one of the bigger daily fantasy events of the year. A match-up between the high-powered offences of the San Francisco 49ers and the Kansas City Chiefs is just the cherry on top of this daily fantasy dessert.
Ownership percentages will certainly be key when building your line-up, as the single-game slate will feature plenty of duplicate line-ups and highly-owned players. Below are some of the premier plays of the day, making them likely to be popular choices. Make sure to build in some lower-owned players or leave some extra money on the table to distinguish your line-up from the rest of the field.
Raheem Mostert, RB, 49ers (£13,500)
If you’re simply looking to exploit the best match-up of the game, Raheem Mostert would be your first choice. Both teams feature a top-five pass defence according to advanced metrics, and the 49ers also own a top-ten run defence. The glaring weakness is Kansas City’s 28th ranked run defence, and although they were able to hold Derrick Henry to just 69 yards rushing in the conference championship game, this is far from a dominant unit.
San Francisco head coach Kyle Shanahan has the running game humming, and Mostert’s 220 rushing yards and four touchdowns against the Green Bay Packers should certainly qualify him for “hot-hand” status. With Tevin Coleman attempting to play through a shoulder injury and Matt Breida failing to reach 20 yards rushing in any of his last five games, Mostert looks set for one more game of true work-horse status. Mostert’s 0.21 Rushing Net Expected Points (think xG, but NFL-style) per carry ranks first in the league among all running backs with 30 or more carries, so this hot stretch is no fluke.
Mostert will most likely be among the five highest-owned players of the slate, but I expect the Chiefs offence to produce most of the fan-favourites for the MVP position. While I certainly wouldn’t fade Kansas City’s passing game, a slow start from the Chiefs could give Mostert an opportunity to repeat on his monster performance from two weeks ago. His £13,500 price tag also provides a reasonable salary to build a line-up around.
Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs (£16,000)
The most expensive player on Paddy Power Fantasy, Patrick Mahomes will likely be the most popular MVP choice, and for good reason. His 36.6 fantasy points per game in the playoffs is eye-popping, and we project him to score the most points on the slate. Mahomes has even begun to dominate on the ground, rushing for 106 yards and a touchdown on 15 carries over his last two games.
Based on the total betting lines for the game, the Chiefs have an implied total of 28 as a 1.5 point favourite, and Mahomes is playing some elite level quarterback right now. Unfortunately, everyone will be playing Mahomes as the MVP, so it may make sense to pick one of his pass-catchers as an under the radar MVP selection. But in any cash or small field contest, you may be better off rolling with Mahomes and trying to find your edges among the flex position players.
George Kittle, TE, 49ers (£11,500)
I’m willing to overlook George Kittle’s near goose-egg in the NFC championship game, as the 49ers rarely had to put the ball in the air. If we assume that the Chiefs will put up a more significant fight than the 49ers’ last several opponents, Kittle should be in for a bounce-back performance.
Kansas City’s defence has been excellent when defending wide receivers but has struggled at times against tight ends, and the Chiefs enter the Super Bowl having allowed a touchdown from the position in three straight games. Kittle’s 0.82 Reception NEP per target trails only the Kansas City deep threats on this slate, and his 113 targets trails only Travis Kelce among all Super Bowl pass-catchers.
A disappointing last game coupled with some similarly priced stars in Kelce and Tyreek Hill may give us a shot at getting Kittle at a relatively low ownership percentage. If this game turns into a shootout, Kittle may be the 49ers’ biggest beneficiary.
Damien Williams, RB, Chiefs (£14,000)
Despite a match-up against a San Francisco run defence that has recently held Dalvin Cook and Aaron Jones in check, Damien Williams is too big a piece of this Chiefs offence to completely fade in this single-game slate. Williams has been on the field for 85% of KC’s offensive snaps over the last three games, and his 19 targets over that span keeps him relatively safe from a negative game-script.
Williams has been a bit up and down at times this year, and his 157 combined yards from scrimmage over the previous two playoff games is a little less impressive considering the gaudy point totals that Kansas City was posting. But Williams has scored seven touchdowns over his last four games and has averaged nearly 18 touches per game over that span.
Another highly owned option, and for good reason, Williams is worth mixing into your line-up in both cash and tournament contests.
Deebo Samuel, WR, 49ers (£8,500)
Many DFS players may gravitate towards Emmanuel Sanders and his cheaper £7,500 price tag, but I prefer the versatility of Deebo Samuel in this matchup.
While Samuel’s combined five receptions for 88 yards in the playoffs may seem lacklustre on the surface, that number becomes much more impressive when considering that Jimmy Garoppolo has completed just 17 passes over that span.
Samuel has also impressed on the ground, and the 49ers’ have continually given him creative opportunities to make plays. Samuel has averaged nearly two carries a game over the last seven weeks while producing 20 or more rushing yards in five of those contests. He’s even chipped in two rushing touchdowns over those seven games.
When combining Samuel’s points projection with his price, we see Samuel as the second-best value play in the Super Bowl. He will come in handy when trying to fit in the high-priced studs on this slate.
Mecole Hardman, WR, Chiefs (£6,000)
At such a cheap price, and with such explosive speed, it will be interesting to see what Mecole Hardman’s ownership percentage is. If he’s among the more popular options on the slate he may be an easy fade, as Hardman has totaled just 27 yards on three receptions in the Chiefs’ two playoff games. But there’s a chance that a big play from Hardman unlocks the slate, as there are likely no other options with his upside priced at £6,000 or below.
Hardman saw an encouraging 39.7% snap rate last week and surpassed Demarcus Robinson (36.8%) in playing time, and Hardman has shown big-play ability multiple times over the course of the season. He’s nearly broken a few kick returns as of late and could be a deep option for Mahomes if the 49ers swing coverage towards Hill and Kelce.
Hardman is far from a sure thing and may not even end up as a sneaky daily fantasy play as drafters flock to his cheap price. But Hardman allows so many high-priced players into one line-up that a big play touchdown could make him a staple of winning tournament line-ups.