The Green Bay Packers and Philadelphia Eagles do battle tonight at Lambeau Field. The unbeaten Packers are four-point favourites on PaddyPower.com, but you want to know how the big names on each team’ll fare for fantasy purposes.
Here’s what we’re thinking…
Davante Adams, WR, Packers (£14,000)
Davante Adams could go off tonight.
The Eagles’ defence has been getting shredded through the air, allowing 39.6 points per game to wideouts through three weeks, the third-most in the league. Terry McLaurin roasted Philly for 125 yards and a stud in Week 1, followed by Calvin Ridley and Julio Jones each going for at least 100 yards and a score in Week 2, with Jones finding the end zone twice. In Week 3, Marvin Jones had 101 yards and a touchdown.
So, yeah, this is a get-right spot for the Green Bay passing game.
Our models have Adams projected for 15.4 FanDuel points, 3.2 more than any other non-quarterback. The only worry here is ownership as Adams will likely be a chalk play today, meaning you have to at least think about fading him for game-theory reasons.
Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers (£15,000)
Pretty much everything we just talked about with Adams makes this a great spot for Aaron Rodgers, too. Philly is allowing the seventh-most points per game to passers, and if Rodgers struggles here, then it’s time to worry about his slow start.
Our projections don’t see that happening, though, as we project him for 19.5 points. Rodgers offers a huge ceiling and could smash this porous Eagles D tonight.
Carson Wentz, QB, Eagles (£14,500)
Punters are all over Green Bay in this one. Over 70% of handicap bets are on the Packers covering, but just 56% of the money coming in is on Green Bay to cover, which tells us the big bettors are leaning toward Philly more than the general public is. If the masses are on Green Bay tonight, then the contrarian route to take is to build a lineup under the assumption the Eagles win.
And look, yes, there’s not a whole lot we can point to that makes this a good spot for the Eagles’ passing game.
Green Bay is allowing the second-fewest points per game to quarterbacks, the fewest to tight ends and the third-fewest to wideouts.
This Green Bay D is looking all sorts of legit. But the Packers have also taken advantage of a favourable schedule as they’ve faced Mitchell Trubisky, Kirk Cousins and Joe Flacco. Not exactly a murderer’s row of QB talent.
Carson Wentz will be the best quarterback the Packers’ defence has faced, and he won’t be a super popular MVP choice. We project him for 17.6 points.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling, WR, Packers (£11,000)
Marquez Valdes-Scantling has some fantastic usage numbers this season. He’s tied with Adams for the team lead in target share, sitting at 23%, per airyards.com. MVS paces the Packers in both air yards share (30%) and average depth of target (12.0) among those with at least five targets.
You could use MVS tonight and fade Adams, or you could stack both of them with Rodgers. Either way, his stellar volume makes him a very appealing play tonight.
Miles Sanders, RB, Eagles (£10,000)
While Wentz is going to be popular on this single-game slate, Miles Sanders probably won’t be with the masses expecting the Eagles to lose by more than four points. Those building with the idea that Green Bay wins by that many may opt for cheap pass-game wizard Darren Sproles (£6,000) rather than Sanders or Jordan Howard (£9,000).
But Sanders does enough on the ground and in the air to be a factor in this offence regardless of how the game plays out.
He’s seen carry counts of 11, 10 and 13 through three games while getting target totals of two, four and four. Sanders has a bigger target share (8%) than Sproles (6%) does, and he leads all Philadelphia players in yards after the catch this season (79), giving him some big-play juice, which is always valuable on single-game slates.
Dallas Goedert, TE, Eagles (£5,000)
When you’re dipping down this low, a goose egg is usually in play, and that’s no different with Dallas Goedert, who did just that last week while playing only nine snaps despite Alshon Jeffery and DeSean Jackson sitting out, though he was a game-time call in Week 3, which may explain the low snap count.
This is purely a dart throw in the truest sense, and the realistic best-case scenario is him finding paydirt. Goedert’s salary frees you up to do almost anything you want with your other four spots, and if you think the Packers win comfortably, then he could play more snaps than usual with Philly in pass-heavy mode. He played 55% of the snaps in Week 1, per Football Outsiders, a game in which the Eagles fell into an early hole.