UFC Tips: Our Tasty 18/1 Treble for UFC 293 in Sydney

Our tipster Aaron Nolan finds three value picks for Saturday night's fighting in Australia.

Sean Strickland, UFC, September 2023

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UFC 29e Betting Tips

2:35am Carlos Ulberg vs Jung Da UnCarlos Ulberg to Win by KO/TKO
4:40am Tai Tuivasa vs Alexander VolkovAlexander Volkov to Win by KO/TKO
5:05am Israel Adesanya vs Sean StricklandSean Strickland to Win

**Times listed are all estimated GMT start time

*A Treble on these selections adds up to around 18/1 with Paddy Power. TAP HERE TO ADD TO YOUR BETSLIP INSTANTLY.

UFC 293 – Qudos Bank Arena, Sydney
TV: TNT Sports 

Carlos Ulberg vs Jung Da Un – Carlos Ulberg to win by KO/TKO

Carlos Ulberg has dominated in his last four fights. He averages 8.34 strikes landed per minute, the 3rd highest in the UFC.
In terms of striking differential (number of strikes landed per minute minus strikes absorbed per minute) he is number 1 in the UFC landing five more strikes per minute more than his opponents. He’s in good company on that Striking Differential Top 10 list. UFC Champions and top-ranked fighters like Sean O’Malley, Jamahal Hill, Ciryl Gane, Tom Aspinall and Khamzat Chimeav all feature below Ulberg.

Carlos Ulberg isn’t fighting a ranked opponent here. This isn’t a big step up in class. Ulberg has won his last 3 fights by KO in the 1st round and I see no reason why he won’t get a finish in this fight. Carlos Ulberg to win by KO/TKO.

 

Tai Tuivasa vs Alexander Volkov – Alexander Volkov to win by KO/TKO

We all like Tai Tuivasa. We like his personality, the grit he shows in the octagon, and the post-fight shoey’s are fun. We can overlook his last two losses. They came against Ciryl Gane and Sergei Pavlovich. They are just two of the best in the division.

Fortunately for Tuivasa, he’s getting a break from getting locked in a cage with the very best heavyweights in the world. Unfortunately for Tuivasa, Volkov is still a complete stud.

Neither of these guys attempt takedowns or submissions so let’s just look at their striking. Tuivasa’s problem is he gets hit a lot. He actually gets hit more than he dishes out. He absorbs 4.5 strikes per minute while landing just 4.1 strikes. Very unusual for a fighter ranked 6th in the division to have a negative striking differential.

The Russian is certainly the more technical fighter. He takes less damage than the Aussie and lands more too. ‘Drago’ has knocked out striking specialists Alistair Overeem and Jairzinho Rozenstruik. He even has a KO via a kick to the body. And he won his last fight by KO in just over two minutes.

I think Tuivasa will get outclassed. Volkov to win by KO/TKO.

Israel Adesanya vs Sean Strickland – Sean Strickland to Win

Sean Strickland is a wildcard in every way imaginable. You never know what he’s going to say or do. We also don’t even know how he’s going to approach this fight. His game plan could be to wrestle, to brawl, to try to out-strike Izzy or a combination of all three. I think he can have success with whatever route he chooses.

Strickland plays up on being brass, violent and offensive but behind that persona is one of the most skilled fighters in the UFC. His striking is both very technical and aggressive. He’s known to win fights with his jab. He also has a high output landing 6.2 strikers per minute – the 3rd highest of all time in the middleweight division. And he’s hard to hit too. No one has evaded more strikes than Strickland in the UFC.

His wrestling, although he doesn’t use it very often, is strong. He defends 84% of takedown attempts and has a 64% success rate on his own takedown attempts. Strickland has a black belt in Jiu Jitsu and four wins by submission. Given Izzy’s prowess on the feat, we will surely see Sean trying to test the Champion’s grappling skills.

Izzy is 1/7 at the time of writing. In MMA, 1/7 represents a complete mismatch. I don’t think Izzy is very likely to just breeze through Strickland. Adesanya will have to be at his very best.

Strickland’s price is too good to pass up for me. I’m picking the real-life Grand Theft Auto character, Sean Strickland to win.

UFC 292 Betting Tips

2:35am Carlos Ulberg vs Jung Da UnCarlos Ulberg to Win by KO/TKO
4:40am Tai Tuivasa vs Alexander VolkovAlexander Volkov to Win by KO/TKO
5:05am Israel Adesanya vs Sean StricklandSean Strickland to Win

*A Treble on these selections adds up to around 18/1 with Paddy Power. TAP HERE TO ADD TO YOUR BETSLIP INSTANTLY.

*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change

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