UFC BETTING TIPS
9pm: Paul Craig v Andre Muniz – Andre Muniz by Points
10pm: Molly McCann v Julija Stoliarenko – Molly McCann by KO/TKO
10.30pm: Tom Aspinall v Marcin Tybura – Tom Aspinall by KO/TKO or DQ
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
UFC London is always well anticipated for MMA fans this side of the Atlantic. No stimulants required to stay up for this one with the main event, Tom Aspinall v Marcin Tybura scheduled for a comparatively early 10:30pm start time.
9pm: Paul Craig vs Andre Muniz – Andre Muniz by Points
The UFC likes to pair up fighters who are coming off a loss and they’ve done that here with Paul Craig making his middleweight debut after back-to-back losses against Volkan Oezdemir and Johnny Walker in the light heavyweight division. Muniz’s nine-fight unbeaten streak came to an end in February against Brendan Allen.
Both fighters also have a jiu-jitsu dependent fighting style. 13 of Paul Craig’s 16 wins have come by submission while Muniz has 15 such wins. Getting deeper into striking and takedown stats, they look quite similar.
Neither fighter tends to land many strikes with just over two landed per minute on each. Muniz is the better fighter defensively, absorbing 40% fewer strikes per minute. He also completes more takedowns with 2.95 to Craig’s 1.81 per 15 minutes.
Time and again Craig has had to overcome a striking deficit by bringing the fight into his domain – with mixed results. Craig will often pull guard or simply accept the bottom position when he gets dropped or taken down so that he can engage in a grappling situation and throw up submission attempts from his back.
It looks like a good match up for Andre Muniz. I think he’s the slightly better striker, he should be more successful with his wrestling and if Craig gets taken down or pulls guard, Muniz should have strong enough grappling to stay safe while maintaining control from the top position. Muniz by Points looks good.
Molly McCann v Julija Stoliarenko – Molly McCann by KO/TKO
Meatball Molly McCann gets after it in the Octagon and this matchup is a great opportunity for her to get another dominant win on a UFC London card. Here’s why: The Lithuanian Julija Stoliarenko has lost four out of five fights since joining the UFC.
In those fights, she landed 2.75 strikes per minute. While Molly lands an overwhelming 5.72 strikes per minute. Molly’s striking defence is better too evading 63% of strikes thrown at her compared to Stoliarenko’s 44%.
Stoliarenko has nine wins by armbar in her career and without doubt, she’ll be looking to add the Liverpudlian’s arm to her collection. Stoliarenko is active at the highest level in the submission grappling scene winning gold earlier this year in the IBJJF European Open.
Molly knows she must keep the fight on the feet and it’s a gameplan that looks very achievable. Stoliarenko doesn’t have a good record with getting takedowns with just 25% of attempts being successful averaging 0.7 successful takedowns per 15 minutes. We’re tipping the McCann to win by KO/TKO.
Tom Aspinall vs Marcin Tybura – Tom Aspinall by KO/TKO or DQ
Tom Aspinall returns to the 02 Arena one year after suffering a knee injury 15 seconds into his fight with Chris Curtis. Aspinall was bulldozing through the division before the freak injury put the brakes on his ascent to the top and now he is itching to regain that momentum with another early finish.
With Tom’s six previous UFC fights, on average, lasting only about two and a half minutes, his fight stats are naturally going to look a bit silly, a bit misleading. For example, his takedown accuracy is 100% but that’s just four takedowns from four attempts.
He’s never been taken down but probably hasn’t faced a takedown attempt. He’s had three fights where his opponent hasn’t been able to get started landing just three strikes or fewer before getting KO/TKO’d.
Tybura has a ton of UFC experience with 17 fights in the organisation but he doesn’t have many big-name wins. His most recent loss came by unanimous decision against Alexander Volkov, a shared opponent with Aspinall.
Tom made light work of the Russian, out striking him and getting the takedown before finishing the fight with a straight armbar 4 minutes into round 1.
Tom has the tools to put Tybura away and from his interviews over fight week, he’s put that expectation on himself. We’re backing Aspinall to close out UFC London with a KO/TKO.
UFC Fight Night Betting TIPS
9pm: Paul Craig v Andre Muniz – Andre Muniz by Points
10pm: Molly McCann v Julija Stoliarenko – Molly McCann by KO/TKO
10.30pm: Tom Aspinall v Marcin Tybura – Tom Aspinall by KO/TKO or DQ
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
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