UFC 289 betting tips:
4:05am: Mike Malott v Adam Fugitt – Malott to Win by KO/TKO or Submission
4:30am: Charles Oliveira v Beneil Dariush – Dariush to Win by Points
5:00am: Amanda Nunes v Irene Aldana – Nunes to Win by Points
* Times listed are all estimated GMT start time
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change
4:05am: Mike Malott v Adam Fugitt – Malott to Win by KO/TKO or Submission
I’ll keep it brief for this fight. Mike Mallot has a 9-1-1 record. All nine of his wins are first round wins, four of which were knockouts and five came from a range of submissions. He’s a higher class of fighter than Adam Fugitt and has every chance of finishing the fight early. We’re going with the Double Chance market of Malott to win by KO/TKO or Submission.
4:30am: Charles Oliveira v Beneil Dariush – Dariush to Win by Points
Before the Islam Makhachev fight, Oliveira had put together an 11-fight undefeated streak in the most stacked division in the UFC. At the tail end of that run, he got consecutive victories over Tony Ferguson, Michael Chandler, Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje. And somehow, he goes in as an underdog against Beneil Dariush. It’s disrespectful is what it is.
I can’t blame you if you’re backing a former UFC Champion who almost cleaned out the entire division at his current price but I really like Dariush.
He will do better work on the feet mainly due to being a good bit better defensively. Charles ‘Do Bronx’ absorbs 3.2 significant strikes per minute while Dariush absorbs 2.5. It’s not just about volume of strikes getting through. Oliveira in recent fights can’t seem to get through the first round without getting rocked or dropped. Dariush isn’t the most accomplished striker but he should find the target with his punches and he can stay relatively safe doing it.
When Oliveira has got dropped, a lot of his opponents elected to let him get back up. He has the most submission wins in UFC history and they didn’t want that jiu jitsu smoke. That was great for Oliveira as it meant he got a few seconds to recoup before getting back to his feet where he would somehow turn the fight around. However, Dariush won’t worry about Oliveira’s submission threat off his back too much. He’s a Jiu Jitsu World Champion himself and will be more than happy to take top position on the ground.
When it comes to wrestling, Oliveira only successfully defends 55% of takedown attempts. Dariush should be able to score some takedowns which at the very least can win favour with the judges. Oliveira will have a tough time having success with his own takedown attempts. Dariush has an 80% takedown defence and that’s strong enough to discourage Oliveira from using a ton of energy in that area of the fight.
Overall, I like that Dariush is good in every department and can bring the fight anywhere. However, I don’t think he’s got a skillset that has a great chance of finishing Oliveira. I like Dariush to win after three rounds.
5:00am: Amanda Nunes v Irene Aldana – Nunes to Win by Points
I have a lot less to say about this fight. Nunes is the GWOAT and really should beat Aldana. It was a big upset losing to Julianna Peña in 2021 but she avenged that loss last year. This PPV Main Event was booked as the trilogy fight but Peña pulled out after breaking her rib in training. Aldana steps in with four wins in her last five fights.
Aldana is tough, durable and known to be a dangerous striker. She has a 14-6 record with her last four losses coming by decision, two of which were split decisions. She can stay competitive in this fight as well but I’m not worried about Aldana winning too much.
Nunes is 35 now and has been winning by decision of late with three of her last four wins coming after 25 minutes in the octagon. With signs of the lioness slowing down a bit, I like Nunes to win by points.
UFC 289 betting tips:
4:05am: Mike Malott v Adam Fugitt – Malott to Win by KO/TKO or Submission
4:30am: Charles Oliveira v Beneil Dariush – Dariush to Win by Points
5:00am: Amanda Nunes v Irene Aldana – Nunes to Win by Points
* Times listed are all estimated GMT start time
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change
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