*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change
The UFC PPV machine makes a pit stop in Singapore and unfortunately for UK and Irish fans the change in location doesn’t correlate with a more appealing start time. Despite that, I’ve still found some value bets to make it an interesting, and hopefully profitable, night.
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Sunday 5.10am: Glover Teixeira v Jiri Prochazka – Teixeira to Win
In what will be just his third UFC fight, Jiri Prochazka has had an explosive run to his maiden UFC title shot. As impressive as his wins over Volkan Oezdemir and Dominick Reyes have been, they have also showcased some gaps in his game that may lead to some issues against Glover Teixeira.
In both those fights Prochazka was very hittable, and we haven’t really seen much of his ground game. That’s not to say his ground game isn’t up to scratch, we just don’t know and that’s an unknown which you should factor into the price.
He has shot for one takedown in his UFC career so far and that was against Reyes when he was wobbled. That’s likely not going to be a tactic which he will look to use in this fight should he find himself rocked given Teixeira’s proficiency on the ground.
It’s also worth noting that he hasn’t had to worry about the threat of the takedown in his UFC career so far and that certainly won’t be the case here. Given all of the above, at the prices I think Glover has to be the pick here.
Teixeira’s path to victory would look relatively obvious; utilise his jiu-jitsu to see if Jiri can answer the questions we haven’t yet seen him asked in the UFC. It’s worth noting that despite only having two UFC appearances, Prochazka has accumulated a great deal of experience in Rizin.
Teixeira and his team will have reviewed this footage and there are fights where was taken down and controlled. He did also display a tendency to give up his back when trying to improve position and that would likely be a fight ending mistake here.
You can see in the prices the correlation between Prochazka’s moneyline and KO prices and I think that makes sense given what we know about him. At these prices I think Teixeira is a really good value play.
We know Prochazka is hittable and most of his upside likely lies in an early KO. If Glover can survive the early onslaught, he will be presented with takedown opportunities and if he finds himself in top position, I think he will have some ground and pound KO upside.
I understand why Prochazka is so short but there are some unknowns in that price that make it a bit steep in my opinion. Glover’s age and durability will of course be a concern but in contrast to Prochazka, I think you’re being fairly compensated about those question marks.
Currently on a six-fight win streak, Teixeira has closed as an underdog in three of those and as a pick ‘em in the other three. Who’s to say he can’t continue upsetting the odds with another Teixeira Win here?
Sunday 4.15am: Joanna Jedrzejczyk v Zhang Weili – Jedrzejczyk to Win
The line of thinking with this selection is broadly similar to the above. This is a rematch of arguably the greatest women’s fight of all time and Joanna Jedrzejczyk can consider herself extremely unlucky not to have been given the nod back against Zhang Weili in March 2020 in what was an insanely close fight.
Styles make fights is the oft-used phrase and such is the stylistic match-up here, it’s very possible that the rematch could be just as difficult to score. If you haven’t already seen it, their first fight is absolutely worth the 25-minute investment of your time.
Joanna hasn’t fought since that night and without the benefit of hindsight it will be difficult to assess the impact that fight had on her. Those are intangibles that you’ll want to be compensated accordingly for in the betting.
Given how close their first fight was, I think that is the case here. The fight is over three rounds this time and it will be interesting to see how both fighters adjust their game plan this time around as their first bout was essentially a kickboxing match.
It very much seemed like the quick exchanges favoured Joanna last time out and over three rounds that could well be the game plan again here. In Mike Brown she has one of the best strategists in the game in her corner and that’s always a plus for me.
To summarise, I think the gap in prices here is a little strange given how their first fight played out and while I appreciate there are some intangibles around Joanna that we don’t have answers to, I think the price is big enough that you’re being compensated accordingly. Jedrzejczyk to Win is the pick.
UFC 275 tips
Sunday 5.10am: Glover Teixeira v Jiri Prochazka – Teixeira to Win
Sunday 4.15am: Joanna Jedrzejczyk v Zhang Weili – Jedrzejczyk to Win
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change
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