UFC Stockholm: Smith can knock-out this 9/2 shot against the home hero

Our MMA guru is sniffing a shock and a very unhappy home crowd in Stockholm tonight. He’s also given us some picks for the rest of the card.

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UFC Fight Night in Stockholm, Sweden has a card packed with fun fights and some really solid matchmaking.

Scanning down the card, some of the winners are harder to pick than a broken nose, but we’ve found a trio of matchups that should deliver victories for us on fight night.

Here are our three to follow:

PaddyPower.com’s odds are a knockout

Spoiler Smith looks like the value pick

This one could be a cracker. Alexander Gustafsson is in light-heavyweight no-man’s land. He’s been too good for just about everyone at 205lbs except two men – Daniel Cormier and Jon Jones.

Now Gustafsson has to maintain his spot as the next best guy in the division against a man who is looking to rebound from an unsuccessful shot at the gold.

Anthony Smith went the distance, but left a lot of his best work in the dressing room as he delivered the most gun-shy display of his light-heavyweight career in a decision loss to Jones.

Gus always performs best when he’s up against someone who will push him, and I’m expecting Smith to come out all guns blazing. It should deliver a superb matchup and I see it almost as a coin-flip fight.

Considering that assessment, the smart play is to go where the value lies, and that’s with Smith. And if he gets it done, the likelihood is he’ll do it via TKO stoppage at 9/2.

Bet of the bout: Anthony Smith to win via KO/TKO – 9/2

Underdog Stevie can upset Santos

Leonardo Santos is an ace grappler who claimed a shock stoppage win over Kevin Lee way back at UFC 194, then defeated Adriano Martins at UFC 204. But, the Brazilian hasn’t fought since.

He’ll return against Scotland’s Stevie Ray, whose win over Jessin Ayari last October effectively saved his UFC career. Ray is underrated on the ground, but would be best off keeping it standing against Santos, where he should have a big power advantage.

Ray is an 11/8 underdog for this fight, and I like those odds a lot.

Bet of the bout: Stevie Ray to win – 11/8

Camacho too macho for Hein

Hein is a great character with superb judo and is as strong an athlete as you’ll find in his weight class.

But against Frank Camacho he’ll face a bigger, equally as strong competitor with a granite chin and a penchant for a tear-up.

Camacho has been in the trenches, and I think he’ll do enough to earn a decision victory at 4/5.

Bet of the bout: Frank Camacho to win – 4/5

Get the latest odds for the biggest bouts on PaddyPower.com

* All odds correct at time of posting.