Paul’s Cheltenham Non Runner Money Back picks
Ballymore Novices Hurdle – SA FUREUR
Champion Chase – NUBE NEGRA
Ryanair Chase – ELDORADO ALLEN
Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle – FAVORI DE CHAMPDOU
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
Ballymore Novices Hurdle – SA FUREUR
Hermes Allen and Champ Kiely head the market for this day two event, but both have been found in the market place and offer no value at their current prices. With 96 other entries, there are plenty of each-way players to choose from.
Of those entries, 38 are trained by either Gordon Elliott or Willie Mullins so it is a guessing game as to which novice hurdles they will run in.
But I am hoping that this son of Walk In The Park, Sa Fureur, will be a part of the Co Meath team and at a price that is a chance worth taking. On both of his starts in bumpers, the selection looked short of pace and then again on his first start over hurdles at two miles at Limerick.
He did win his maiden at the minimum trip at Punchestown, but showed that a 2m 4f or more trip would be his forte in a slowly race over 2m 4f at that venue. He travelled all over his rivals turning for home, the six-year-old was momentarily outpaced, before fighting back to land the spoils by half a length.
That was enough evidence to suggest that the Ballymore Hurdle on Wednesday 1.30pm could be the race to aim him at. At big odds he could be a smidgeon of each-way value. If he doesn’t run there you’ll get your stake back in Paddy’s Non Runner Money Back offer.
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Champion Chase – NUBE NEGRA
Following the Clarence House Chase at Cheltenham, the shape of the 2m Championship has changed substantially. In a race controlled from the front, Energumene struggled to find the gears to get on terms and ultimately his jumping let him down under pressure over the final two fences. Still, he remains the most likely winner of the impending speed championship even if his grip is not now as tight as it was pre-race.
There is still though plenty of value to be had in this year’s renewal and although much will depend on the state of the ground, Dan Skelton’s Nube Negra has a massive chance of hitting the frame on his favoured good ground. It’s possible he has more than an outside chance of landing the gold medal.
Indeed the nine-year-old should have won the 2021 championship in my eyes, but he stumbled badly after the last and despite gaining momentum on the climb for home, just failed to haul back Put The Kettle On. Last year I am not so sure he was campaigned so well and was given a moderate ride in the Tingle Creek when ridden way too prominently on ground that was testing enough for him.
He was then beaten by the same horse, Greaneteen, in the Celebration Chase, but the balance of his form suggests he is a better horse going left handed and needs to be held up for as long as possible to boot. Good ground enables him to jump better and Prestbury Park seems to suit his hold up style; here’s hoping we don’t get the huge downpour of 12 months ago.
Ryanair Chase – ELDORADO ALLEN
I was undecided for a while between a pick in Thursday’s Ryanair Chase and the Stayers’ Hurdle. but I am hoping that Nicky Henderson has a change of heart and runs Maries Rock in the latter event.
I think she would give the boys a beating. With the assumption that she will defend her Mares Hurdle title, I have turned my attention to the Ryanair in the hope that Joe Tizzard’s Eldorado Allen chooses the Thursday feature over and above the Gold Cup.
Second in an Arkle to Shishkin and then a distant third to Allaho in the 2022 running of this Championship race, plenty of factors have changed this year. A fit and in form Allaho would be very hard to oppose again, but he has not raced since the Punchestown Festival last Spring and there are mixed reports about his well being. Of course if he arrived at the start in the same form as last year, he quite simply wins.
But along with question marks about the favourite and an entry with little strength in depth, ‘Allen’ looks a play to hit the frame at the very least at a double-figure price. He just lacks the staying power to see out the three and a quarter miles of a Gold Cup, but this trip on the New Course suits him ideally.
You could make an argument that in two of his three runs this season he has put up career best efforts and in the third, in the King George, he compromised his chance with two early blunders, without which he may well have finished second.
For me this is his race and a clear round will see him placed at the very least.
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Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle – FAVORI DE CHAMPDOU
An intriguing race where the majority of the entries are budding staying chasers still learning their trade. Even the best jumps trainers on the planet can find it hard to assess the current position of their charges at the time of the race.
At the time of writing Willie Mullins has 12 of the 76 entries including favourite Embassy Gardens, a 35 length winner of the Thurles novice hurdle. As appealing to the eye as that run was, it was a race which fell apart in his favour. I prefer the claims of Grangeclare West who is best forgiven his run in the Lawlors of Naas as he coughed after that run. He holds an entry in the 2m 6f that opens Leopardtown’s stunning card on Saturday.
However, it is the Gordon Elliott Favori De Champdou that captures my eye despite not being mentioned in any of the pre-season stable interviews. Unplaced in three point to points, it is fair to say he has been a slow burner, eventually losing his maiden tag in bumpers at the third time of asking when readily beating subsequent Cesarewitch winner Run from Oscar.
Since then he has been three from four in hurdles, outpaced over 2m5f in a moderately run race but then showing gradual progressive form to win three novice events over three miles. On each occasion, the son of Saddler Maker showed a high cruising speed and then simply galloped his rivals into the ground when asked for his effort. If you look at past Albert Bartlett renewals coming down the hill plenty of runners have a chance, but it is the final three furlongs that sorts the non stayers/immature sorts out, on both those counts this horse will not fail.
Paul’s Cheltenham antepost tips
Ballymore Novices Hurdle – SA FUREUR
Champion Chase – NUBE NEGRA
Ryanair Chase – ELDORADO ALLEN
Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle – FAVORI DE CHAMPDOU
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