Can the winners of key trials follow in the hooves for some legendary horses in the third Classic of the British season?
That’s one of the key questions heading into the Oaks at Epsom on Friday as Forest Fairy bids to emulate Enable after scoring in the Cheshire Oaks and Secret Satire attempts to repeat Snowfall in doubling up the Musidora Stakes.
There is a good chance that the top prize will be heading across the Irish Sea, however, as Aidan O’Brien saddles leading contenders Rubies Are Red and Ylang Ylang, while Dermot Weld boasts Group 3 winner Ezeliya.
Oaks odds can be found on the Paddy Power website and Paddy Power app, otherwise key historical trends from the last 10 renewals and a tip based off the big-race stats are below.
Oaks trends
COURSE FORM
A lack of action throughout the season at Epsom means it’s hardly surprising that none of the last 10 winners of the Oaks had previously raced at Epsom.
DISTANCE FORM
Just six winners had run over 1m2f to 1m4f in their fledgling careers, with five of those scoring over intermediate trips.
DRAW
There appears to be little in the way of draw bias as six winners broke from stall 5 or lower, while the other four set off from stall nine or higher.
FLAT FORM
A lack of experience is not necessarily a hindrance because four winners had only run three times, with five others running between four and eight times. Taghrooda (2014) is the outlier having only had two career outings before Oaks glory.
GROUP FORM
A previous victory at the higher levels is not too important as five winners had already scored in a Group 1, 2 or 3.
LAST TIME OUT
You want to look for a horse that achieved a top-two finish in their most recent outing because that is a trait shared by nine previous winners – the exception being Qualify (2015) who is a bit of a trends buster. That’s a worry for the likes of Ylang Ylang and Dance Sequence, who were fifth and ninth in the 1000 Guineas respectively.
It is also worth noting that every winner had a run within the last 33 days. Caught U Looking and Ezeliya miss this trend by a single day.
ODDS
Seven of the last 10 winners could be found in the top three in Paddy Power’s betting, although only two favourites have obliged. A big-priced winner is a rarity, however, as 50/1 shot Qualify (2015) was the only scorer with a double-digit SP.
RATING
Every winner of the Oaks has been rated at least 99, while eight of those boasted an official mark of 103 or higher.
SEASON FORM
The whole field for this year’s renewal of the Oaks meets the vital trend of having had at least one run for the season, however, eight of the last 10 winners of the Epsom Classic had already scored in that campaign including the last five!
Oaks 2024 trends verdict
SECRET SATIRE meets the most-important of the key trends on offer – achieved by eight of the last 10 winners – so the Musidora heroine gets the tentative nod in what looks like a wide-open renewal.
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change
Today’s Racing Tips
- Matt Chapman’s ITV Racing tips for Epsom today
- Rory Delargy’s Epsom tips for today
- Mick Fitzgerald’s horse racing tips for Epsom today
- Ruby Walsh’s horse racing tips for today‘s Epsom action
- Jason Weaver’s ITV Racing tips at Epsom today
Read These Next on the Oaks
- Gallop over to Paddy Power News for all the latest horse racing tips
- When is the Oaks 2024? Epsom date, start time, runners and betting
- Oaks tips and runner-by-runner guide to Epsom 4.30 on Friday
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