The final Grade 1 of the British National Hunt season promises to be a belter as El Fabiolo and Jonbon clash in the third instalment of their blockbuster rivalry.
The leading minimum-distance chasers on either side of the Irish Sea are set to go to war over Sandown’s iconic railway fences in the Celebration Chase, although Edwardstone‘s connections will be hoping their 2022 Tingle Creek winner can spoil the party.
Despite flopping in last month’s Queen Mother Champion Chase, El Fabiolo is the warm favourite to get the job done and lead Willie Mullins’ charge to land the British Jump Trainers’ Championship… but could he be vulnerable on the day?
Celebration Chase odds can be found on the Paddy Power website and Paddy Power app, otherwise key historical trends from the last 10 renewals and a tip based off the big-race stats are below.
Celebration Chase trends
AGE
Sprinter Sacre (2016) is the only winner of the last 10 renewals of the Celebration Chase to be outside the seven to nine age bracket.
CHASE FORM
Every single score in that race since 2013 had at least five previous runs and three victories over fences.
COURSE FORM
Every winner in the last 10 years had previously tackled the tricky track at Sandown. It could be a stat worth drawing a line through, however, because Willie Mullins rarely sends runners to the Esher course.
DISTANCE FORM
The last 10 winners of the Celebration Chase share a profile of 11 or more previous runs over 1m7f to 2m1f and at least three wins over those trips.
LAST TIME OUT
Nine of the last 10 winners were back on the track within 49 days of their last race – Greaneteen (2022) being the exception – while seven of those were successful on their most recent outing.
The Champion Chase at the Cheltenham Festival is the key form race as six took in the championship race, with four of those winning and one placing at HQ.
ODDS
Paddy Power’s betting for the Celebration Chase is generally a smart guide as eight of the last 10 favourites justified their position at the head of the market.
RATING
You want to look for a horse that is rated 159 or higher as nine of the last 10 winners hit this figure and the one exception, Sire De Grugy (2013), went from a mark of 145 to a career high of 169.
SEASON FORM
Every winner of the Celebration Chase since 2013 had already scored in that campaign.
At least three previous runs for the season is a trend achieved by nine winners of the last 10 renewals. Altior (2018) scored on his third outing for the season.
Celebration Chase 2024 trends verdict
While it is probably worth ignoring the course trends, Jonbon still emerges as the trends pick ahead of El Fabiolo on account of the latter failing to meet the distance form.
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change
Saturday’s Racing Tips
- Horse Racing Tips: Paddy’s Pundits’ Epic Cheat Sheet for ITV Racing on Saturday
- Matt Chapman’s horse racing tips for Saturday
- Mick Fitzgerald’s ITV Racing tips for Saturday
- Ruby Walsh’s horse racing tips for Sandown on Saturday
- Jason Weaver’s horse racing tips for Saturday
Read More on Saturday’s Sandown Meeting
- Gallop over to Paddy Power News for all the latest horse racing tips
- Confirmed Celebration Chase runners and riders for Saturday’s big race at Sandown
- When is the Celebration Chase 2024? Sandown date, start time, runners and betting
- bet365 Gold Cup tips and runner-by-runner guide to Sandown 3.35 on Saturday
- Willie Mullins’ confirmed runners and riders at Sandown on Saturday
The Paddy Power Guide To Safer Gambling – Everything You Need To Know
