Horse Racing Tips: Paul Jacobs’ value plays across the tracks on Sunday

Value's the name of the game when PJ's in town and he likes Arabian King in the 3.45 at Naas.

Paul Jacobs byline new

By / Horse Racing Tips / 3 months ago

Paul Jacobs’ Sunday Racing Tips

13:25 Doncaster – Sam Barton
14:20 Fontwell – Glorious Mist (each-way)
15:05 Doncaster – Pyffo
15:45 Naas – Arabian King

*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

13:25 Doncaster – Sam Barton

I thought that this was one of the most interesting betting heats of the day with the likes of Gold Link, Some Scope and One True King initially of great interest to me. The last named, from the in form Nigel Twiston-Davies yard has been steadily falling down the weights after being set some pretty stiff tasks in the last 18 months or so, but showed last time out at Wetherby his turn is close at hand and he will be so much better suited to this sounder surface.

However, the top weight Sam Barton has that bit of class and has yet to fulfil his potential as a chaser, just two wins from 19 in this sphere. He never really got into a rhythm on his seasonal return at Exeter in October and in fact did well to still be in with a chance turning out of the back straight after several glaring errors. This quicker ground will also definitely be in his favour and with Joe Anderson taking 5lbs off his back, a mark of 117 looks very playable here.

        14:20 Fontwell – Glorious Mist (each-way)

        This is arguably the better of the two divisions over this intermediate trip with the likes of Shuil Ceoil, Naturally High and top weight Jemura sure to have plenty of backers here. But I suspect that the ground at the Arundel track will be riding plenty tacky enough come race time and that could make the lighter weights come even more into play with Paddy Butler’s charge Glorious Mist the each-way, value call.

        The daughter of Fame and Glory has a form record of 623 at the track and to be fair had no right to finish as close up as she did on two of those runs. She looked badly in need of the run on her seasonal debut at Lingfield at the back end of November and could never get competitive, but that was the case 12 months ago when she then took another huge step forward on her second start. Down to a handicap mark of 71, she looks fairly weighted and if Luke Scott can keep her in touch early on then the partnership should be closing down her rivals on the final climb to the winning post.

            15:05 Doncaster – Pyffo

            The majority of this 14-runner field are relatively exposed and probably handicapped up to the hilt. On To Victory did interest me coming back from a break as this is his track and he was pretty smart at his best both on the level and over hurdles. The fact that Alan King is still in charge of him and has kept him training is a massive pointer and the market will be a good guide as well.

            Stony Man also comes into that category, having his first run for 288-days. But it is the selection Pyffo that really excites me despite having to carry a huge weight here which equates to a mark of 116. There is little doubt that the son of Shantou struggled in the ground last time out at Ffos Las, but he was treated for a condition after the race and he is best judged on his previous two starts on a better surface, a bumper at Worcester and a novice hurdle at Ludlow. This extra yardage is also in his favour and the six-year-old comes here with any amount of potential.

                  15:45 Naas – Arabian King

                  Of the four ‘value plays’ I have put forward this week, this is by far the most interesting runner in this extended two and a quarter mile handicap hurdle especially at the relative prices. Heliko Conti keeps on finding one too good, but there was nothing wring with his close up second at Leopardstown last time out, while a huge blunder a the final flight probably cost Pride of Place victory here last time out and certainly cost him more than the length and a half he was beaten by American Money.

                  He could well be the biggest danger to the selection Arabian King, who is likely to be a much bigger price than any of the above mentioned. He has run a couple of cracking races over further at Cheltenham on his last two starts, but I suspect that a significant drop in distance accompanied by this softer ground could well be the key to unlocking a second win over timber. His only win over hurdles came on good ground, but he has run some of his better races since with give in the ground, but it is the drop in trip that could be the biggest factor as he seems to travel so well through his races.

                      Paul Jacobs’ Sunday Racing Tips

                      13:25 Doncaster – Sam Barton
                      14:20 Fontwell – Glorious Mist (each-way)
                      15:05 Doncaster – Pyffo
                      15:45 Naas – Arabian King

                      *All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

                      READ MORE

                        THE LATEST RACING ODDS ARE ON PADDYPOWER.COM NOW

                          THE PADDY POWER GUIDE TO SAFER GAMBLING – EVERYTHING YOU NEED TO KNOW

                          What do you think?