*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change
Some tipping in Paul Jacobs’ value Column on Easter Monday where he picked Belloccio at 22/1 to win at Kempton 15:30 & Lord Lariat to win the Irish Grand National 90 mins later.
15:32 Sandown – Enrilo, Streets Of Doyen (each way)
Year on year this has been one of my favourite races and I am hugely surprised that there are only 15 final acceptors when you consider the huge prize money on offer. The only reason I can give for this is the prospect of reasonably fast ground.
Last year’s event was dramatic with Potterman awarded the race after Enrilo finished first but interfered with Kitty’s Light and was placed third. On these terms the Paul Nicholls’ trained charge has a distinct advantage of that returning trio and has been aimed at the race all season, hence his position at the head of the market.
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He is the most likely winner of this famous race, but I will save my stake on Streets Of Doyen. The possible fast ground factor is my reason for backing the Irish raider who I feel has been campaigned in a rather strange way by his handler, who has been having a fine run recently. Running him in the Brown Advisory at Cheltenham told us either he thought his charge was way better than his current mark or he was merely shooting at stars.
As it was the ground went against him during that miserable rainy day and I’m surprised that the eight-year-old wasn’t scratched. This will be only his sixth start over fences, he looks reasonably well treated and if the weather gods don’t intervene again he looks a play at a double-figure price on ground he will bounce off.
16:20 Haydock – Bristol Hill
This looks quite a competitive Class 5 handicap for the level, but I immediately crossed off six of the 10-runner field for one reason or another. In the end I was stuck between Bristol Hill and the light-weight Intercessor and, although I haven’t put him up as a second selection in the race, if the price is right, I think I will be having a saver on the Due Diligence gelding.
For starters, the drying surface will suit him so much better than the testing ground at Redcar first time back and with Adam Keeley on board he looks nicely treated. However, the selection looks ready to put up a career best in the UK since coming over from Andre Fabre’s yard following two runs at Southwell and Kempton.
That last outing was better than his finishing position suggests as he was badly hampered early on, but rallied after getting outpaced. An end-to-end gallop would help and a further 3lbs drop in the weights looks very fair.
16:26 Leicester – Faithhopeandglory
It wasn’t too long ago that Central City was running well in some nice Class 4 handicaps on the all-weather, being placed off marks of around 74. He now finds himself perched on a rating of 49 with his young claimer on board. A mile has always been a shade too short for him and I expect him to reverse January 20th form with Balqaa over this extra quarter mile.
His fourth of 10 to Pips Tune at Chelmsford over this trip is a better guide to his chance here and the old boy is hugely respected at an each-way price. However, I think Faithhopeandglory is lurking off a mark of 53 and with only four runs under her belt there should be significantly more to come.
David Loughnane has always been a master at laying out his less talented horses and this daughter of Coach House has been given a nice education in four starts on the sand. The last of those was the most encouraging, going off an unconsidered 25/1 shot at Wolverhampton over an extended nine furlongs, she was at the back of the pack early on off a very moderate pace.
When the leaders quickened up turning for home the selection was momentarily left flat footed, but really found her stride inside the final 150 yards to finish a closing seventh of 10, but beaten less than five lengths. Being dropped fully 3lbs for that run seems an over-reaction from the assessor.
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17:45 Wolverhampton – Local Bay
These Class 6 handicaps may not be the most enticing betting mediums and I can understand why. They are races I label ‘whose turn is it to win’ events and the likes of the eight-year-old Peachey Carnehan and Soyounique have outstanding chances on their best form, but the top weight Local Bay could leave this level well behind this summer. I have been waiting for him to return to this track over this extended 7f trip.
Hailing from the red-hot Tony Carroll yard, this son of Cable Bay just found an extended mile a bit too far for him, following a short break. Although drawn in box 11, he is normally held up in his races. To my eyes there is plenty of pace on here for him to run at and I confidently expect him to run down the majority of this field down the home stretch.
Saturday’s racing tips
15:32 Sandown – Enrilo, Streets Of Doyen (each way)
16:20 Haydock – Bristol Hill
16:26 Leicester – Faithhopeandglory
17:45 Wolverhampton – Local Bay
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change
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