Horse Racing tips: Paul Jacobs’ 4 value plays across the tracks on Sunday

Our tipster Paul has your picks covered at Carlisle and Cork.

Paul Jacobs Generic

Comments

* All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

14:00 Carlisle – Silver Hallmark

All the talk this close season has been about Lucinda Russell’s Ahoy Senor, a grade one winner at Aintree last season, being the best novice chase prospect in the north of England, but the two and a half miles of the feature Colin Parker Memorial Intermediate Chase could well be a bare minimum for him.

Connections hope he will become an RSA horse, but the three and three quarter mile National Hunt Chase looks a more natural fit for this out and out stayer. His time will come if not this afternoon and despite set to give 6lbs and upwards away to his rivals, Silver Hallmark can sink that highly touted opponent.

By contrast the selection SILVER HALLMARK looks a natural over this trip, acts with plenty of dig in the ground and has the advantage of two chasing starts under his belt. And he confirmed his earlier promise at Haydock Park in March when he readily saw off the highly rated Marown over this trip in testing ground.

NEW TO PADDY POWER?

14:35 Carlisle – Tommys Oscar

Several of these handicap hurdlers are still hiding their true talents under a bushel with the likes of Captain Zebo, Bass Rock and Mayo Star all expected to step forward again this season. The last-named of that trio has always been well regarded by Nicky Richards, but several problems have restricted him to just the 10 starts under rules.

His best performance arguably came last time out at Ayr in a class three handicap hurdle even though the deep ground was very much against him. Indeed, going against the grain for many of the yard’s inmates he prefers a much better surface. The nine-year-old could be the biggest player against my selection TOMMYS OSCAR who in turn has just visited the racecourse on the nine occasions.

The key though to his chance here is the step up to two and a half miles having raced entirely over the minimum trip in his career. However, he won his point to point over three miles with plenty of give in the turf and I expect massive improvement from him here given this much stiffer test of stamina.

CarlisleflatMay21

15:00 Cork – Dromore Lad (Each Way)

There is a surprisingly small field of just 13 for the three and a half mile feature Paddy Power Cork Grand National Handicap Chase with Gordon Elliot only having the one entry in the form of Braeside which probably says a lot about his chance here under Jack Kennedy.

But I shall sidestep the County Meath trained representative and instead plump for last year’s winner DROMORE LAD to bounce back to form here. The then eight-year-old was a shock 40/1 winner that day off a mark of 122, relishing the deep conditions and only really getting into top gear inside the last three furlongs.

That success saw his handicap mark go up to 132 and in 11 subsequent starts he has only been placed on the one occasion again here at Cork. However, he did show last time out at Galway over an insufficient two-and-three-quarter miles that the light still burns brightly when making late gains into sixth pace behind Theatre World and that was quite obviously a warm-up race for the defence of his title.

With further showers forecast on Sunday and back down to a rating of 123 he should go well again at a double-figure price. Of his rivals, Eleazar Des Neiges is respected following a fair second at Galway last month, while I couldn’t put any of you off the Noel Meade trained Eurobot now that the handicapper has finally dropped him to a more realistic mark for this valuable prize.

15:10 Carlisle – Whos In The Box

With further heavy showers forecast at the Cumbrian track I am also keen to have a significant bet on this light weight in the staying handicap chase. There are several unexposed sorts in this field which looks a pretty good renewal with the likes of the well-handicapped Hill Sixteen and thorough stayer Christmas In April highly respected.

The last-named was being touted as a possible Welsh Grand National horse last year, but like most of the Tizzard string ran well below expectations, kicking off his campaign with two pulled up efforts including in the big Chepstow feature itself. He proved those runs all wrong with a strong staying success over Highest Son on much better ground at Newton Abbot in May and could still be well treated off a mark of 134 although any further rain wouldn’t be in his favour.

However, the selection WHOS IN THE BOX is also unexposed and was never out of the first two in five starts last season and this stiff track could be made for him. There simply wasn’t enough dig in the ground when he was pipped by Silva Eclipse at Sedgefield last time out and the more rain that falls here the better for him here.

Paul Jacobs’ best bets:

14:00 Carlisle – Silver Hallmark
14:35 Carlisle – Tommys Oscar
15:00 Cork – Dromore Lad (Each Way)
15:10 Carlisle – Whos In The Box

* All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

DON’T MISS

  • CHECK OUT OUR BRAND NEW SNAZZY RACECARDS FOR EVERY SINGLE RACE TODAY
  • … THEN GET ALL THE WINNERS BEFORE ANYONE ELSE WITH OUR FAST RESULTS

READ MORE

The latest racing odds are on PaddyPower.com now

The Paddy Power Guide To Responsible Gambling – Everything You Need To Know