Horse Racing tips: Matt Chapman’s 9 nifty picks for Saturday’s ITV racing

Matt’s all over the big betting handicaps on Ayr Gold Cup day and the graded action at Newbury in a tellybox feast.

Matt Chapman Cheltenham

By / Horse Racing Tips / 3 years ago

* All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

Ayr 13:55 – Juan Elcano

A bumper Saturday on ITV gets under way here with the Listed Doonside Cup over 1m2f. A decent little heat which give the talented JUAN ELCANO a huge chance of getting a second win of the season for Kevin Ryan and Kevin Stott. The Frankle gelding has faced some stiff tasks including when once fifth in a 2000 Guineas, but he was a decent winner of the Wolferton Stakes at Royal Ascot and that form gives him a bug shout in the line-up. With a mark of 113 and getting 2lb from Euchen Glen he will go very well.

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Newbury 14:15 – Hurricane Ivor

ITV are also at Newbury Saturday starting with this Group 3 World Trophy Stakes over 5f. Khaadem bounced back to form last time but I suspect it was a weak race. Tis Marvellous has done this column a favour recently and could go in again. But I want to stick with the Portland winner HURRICANE IVOR who is going to bring a decent level of form to the table and is improving with every race. Tom Marquand has the mount for William Haggas and he should be bang there.

Ayr 14:30 – Staxton

This is the Silver Cup over 6f. STAXTON flopped at Ripon last time which is a track he loves so it’s hard to be confident. That said, he’s now a very well handicapped horse for Tim Easterby and Duran Fentiman. My hope has had a few tries in these big sprints at Ayr before and not come up with the goods, but in the Gold Cup last year he was only a 12-1 chance and he’s 3lb lower here. I will risk a few quid eachway.

Newbury 14:50 – Al Aasy

Now the Group 3 Legacy Cup Stakes over 1m3f, once seen as an Arc trial. AL AASY has become a horse to take on, but not in this race which he should win cosily with a BHA rating of 120. The problem with the William Haggas-trained runner is that he doesn’t find much off the bridle, which meant he didn’t win the Coronation Cup at Epsom when he should have done. Should be another for William Haggas and Jim Crowley.

Ayr 15:05 – Canonized

Now the Group 3 First of Clyde Fillies’ Stakes over 6f. CANONIZED can’t win on ratings but William Haggas is no mug and I suspect the exposed juvenile has eachway claims for Paul Mulrennan. The Cheveley Park filly has had loads of runners but looked better than ever when fourth in a Group 3 at Longchamp in France when last seen. A fourth in the St Hugh’s at Newbury was also a fine effort as that was a big field. Another I’ll have a few quid on eachway.

Ayr-Racecourse

Newbury 15:25 – Pivoine

A handicap here over 1m2f. Another wide open heat. PIVOINE was once rated nearly 20lb higher than he is now and is not the easiest to win with – that said, he must have place claims at the least here for Andrew Balding and the champion Oisin Murphy. My hope won well at Haydock back in June and was far from disgraced when last seen at York behind Aramaic who of course goes again here. Conditions are ideal to get in the mix here.

Ayr 15:40 – Bielsa

This is the big betting race of the day, the Ayr Gold Cup over 6f. Like so many handicaps, it’s a very different race in the modern era, with only about a stone between top and bottom weight. You won’t get a Famous Star scoring, who landed the prize in 1982 as a three-year-old off 7st 7lb! As always the draw will play a major part, and if low have an advantage then there’s every chance likely market leader Great Ambassador will become the fourth favourite to score in seven years.

That said, I’m aiming high with the ultra consistent BIELSA who goes for Kevin Ryan and Kevin Stott. Bielsa has been higher in the handicap in his time, but he doesn’t really have anything in hand which is annoying. What he does have is consistent form in these events, including a fifth in a big-field handicap at York, a second at Haydock, an eighth in the Buckingham Palace and sixth in the Stewards’ Cup. A furlong out he’ll have very chance.

Newbury 16:00 – Dhabab

A decent juvenile event in the Group 2 Mill Reef Stakes over 1m. The trip is a worry for many of these, but it’s the ground that gives me a slight concern for DHABAB representing the Gosdens and Robert Havlin. Stamina is his strong suit having gone over 7f at Newmarket last time in the Superlative Stakes. If he copes with this softer surface he should have every chance and being by No Nay Never there is every chance that will be the case.

Ayr 16:15 – Shelir

Here is a handicap over 1m. This is tough. Very tough. The handicapper has been tough on SHELIR since he ripped up a field at Thirsk in September of last year. He’s not thrown in at all off 97 and will need to produce something special. That said, he’s got decent form at the track and has always had loads of ability for David O’Meara. Jason Watson takes the ride and he’s on a horse that goes on any ground for all that he once looked like he needed it soft. An eachway hope again.

So best of luck and pray for Yeeehaaas. You hear me Paddy?

Matt Chapman’s best bets:

Ayr 13:55 – Juan Elcano
Newbury 14:15 – Hurricane Ivor
Ayr 14:30 – Staxton
Newbury 14:50 – Al Aasy
Ayr 15:05 – Canonized
Newbury 15:25 – Pivoine
Ayr 15:40 – Bielsa
Newbury 16:00 – Dhabab
Ayr 16:15 – Shelir

* All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

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