If you haven’t heard, Paddy Power is sponsoring this race and to celebrate we’re paying out six places on the each-way terms.
Given the field, you’ll probably want that as there are a lot of familiar names here. One that I’m keener to see is FLAMING MOON. He had his first go over a mile last time and it looks like it’s his trip down to a T.
He’s way more exposed than the rest of these and his rating of 94 underestimates his ability. He won really well last time even though he finished just two lengths clear of So Suave, but he was well on top.
He could be a stakes horse in a handicap race.
When he went to Galway and I don’t think the tight track suited him there. When he hit the straight mile at the Curragh it seemed to be much more his cup of tea.
It was his first go at a mile and it looked like a trip he was crying out for, so going up 8lbs shouldn’t be too much of a worry, nor the soft ground as he won his maiden on similar.
Over his second run at what looks like his optimum trip, I’d be really disappointed if he doesn’t go close and I’d be amazed if he’s not there or thereabouts.
Not the strongest Group 3, Aidan O’Brien’s horses look a little bit below his best even though he has a great record in this race. Last year he won it with Lope Y Fernandez and the year before was Ten Sovereigns.
I don’t believe his pair this year are at that level, so I’d take them on with something more unexposed like TERESA MENDOZA.
She stands out a mile as something that could be really, really good. She won her maiden over course and distance and was eye-catching doing it. She went off at a big price and beat Monaasib who’s rated in the 90s now.
The soft ground is a slight doubt, but it’s not the strongest field and I’d be surprised if she doesn’t show here.
It’s worth taken stab at this with some of the prices – you could run some of these handicaps ten times and get ten different winners.
TRESORIER is the one I’ve come down on here. He hasn’t won since he moved to Ireland from France, but his rating has been steadily dropping so I reckon he’s well capable of winning off the 76 mark. Go back to his last run at Dundalk, he ran Geological close and really should’ve won – and we know how good Geological is around there.
Soft ground and the Curragh pose no problems, he’s run well here before, and looked good in some higher-class races towards the end of last year. This isn’t a great race, but it’s worth taking a chance with Tresorier.
This is another sponsored by Paddy and nursery races like this are always really wide open at this time of year, but I’m going for Joseph O’Brien’s OMAKASE.
He stepped up to 7 furlongs last time at Leopardstown on heavy ground, so we know those shouldn’t pose him too problems for him.
The mark of 72 probably underestimates him and a lot of his competition in this looks stagnant based on their previous races, whereas he looks like he’s on an upward curve and I’d expect him to go well here.
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