Ask any player or manager about a match they’ve just won and they’ll doubtless reply that “it’s all about the three points, Brian.” Wayne Bridge once said that after winning a cup final, so ingrained is this cliché in the minds of footballers.
But when it comes to betting, not all victories are equal. That’s why Paddy Power offers a Winning Margin market. It’s not an easy bet to win though. You have 10 options, and while some are inevitably more likely to be correct than others, there isn’t much room for manoeuvre.
For the home team, you could select for them to win by exactly one, two or three goals, or by four-or-more, and you have the same choices for the away side. There is then also the possibility to select 0-0, or a score draw of any level.
There is obviously a little more wiggle room than there is in the Correct Score market. For instance, by not having to be too specific, a “to win by exactly 1 goal” selection will be fine with 1-0, 2-1, 3-2 and so on. You’ll be praying for another goal if the 7-7 draw craved for by Paddy’s Twitter admin finally occurs.
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If we use the 2022/23 Premier League champions as a case study, we’ll see how difficult the Winning Margin market is to navigate though. Manchester City won 28 of their 38 matches on the way to the title last season.
For almost every match they played you could be confident there would be a winning margin in their favour. However, they also highlighted the difficulty inherent in making a selection in this market.
Pep Guardiola’s side would often race into a big lead, only to ease off and allow their opponents a consolation goal. In 2022/23, City went 3-0 or 4-0 up against Manchester United, Leeds, Aston Villa, Bournemouth, Southampton, Leicester and Arsenal before conceding.
Never mind that they still won with ease, the fate of Winning Margin bets likely suffered. And if you can’t rely on a team with the might of a nation state backing them, who can you rely upon? Let’s look at some of the stand out teams in this market from the last five seasons of Premier League action.
One goal margin
One thing with Manchester City is that they win more games by two goals than most teams do by one. The masters of claiming a victory by the barest of all margins over the last half decade have been Liverpool, with the 14 they recorded on their way to the title in 2019/20 the most any side has mustered in any of the last five seasons.
However, Manchester United have been more consistent on this front. There have been eight instances of a team posting at least 11 one-goal wins since 2018/19 and the Red Devils provided three of them.
Wolves, meanwhile, are the only side to record at least eight wins by exactly one in each of the last five campaigns. No matter who their manager is, they never seem to be that entertaining.
In terms of defeats, West Ham United have accrued the most by a solitary goal among the ever-present sides from the last five seasons who will also be in the Premier League in 2023/24 (sorry, Southampton).
Keep an eye on Fulham this season, too. Marco Silva’s side lost 13 games by one goal last season – the third most of any team in the last five years – and should’ve suffered a few more according to the stats.
Two goal margin
As we move up, so the cream rises to the top. Liverpool (23.2%), City (22.1%) and Arsenal (21.6%) have won almost a quarter of their league matches since the summer of 2018 by exactly two goals.
Jurgen Klopp’s boys were responsible for three of the six examples of a team enjoying at least 10 such victories in the last five years. It’s worth noting they did so in campaigns when challenging for the title, though, so wait and see if they’ve recovered from 2022/23 before trusting them again.
On the wrong side of the tracks, there were five teams who lost seven times by two goals last season, and remarkably four of them stayed up. Everton have been the most consistent team for this in recent times. Can Sean Dyche bring this to an end? As his Burnley side also lost plenty of games by two goals, probably not.
Three goal margin
While it won’t shock you to learn City have been the best team for three goal wins over the last five seasons, would you have picked Chelsea as second best? You certainly wouldn’t have if you watched them in 2022/23.
And that highlights the difficulty you face in researching this market – for a decent sample size you must look back a long way. This is why Newcastle have amassed the most defeats by exactly three goals among the ever-present clubs for the last five years who’ll be in the top flight in 2023/24. With sizeable backing instead of Mike Ashley’s clown car, those days should be over.
Four-or-more goal margin
As a little under seven percent of matches fall into this category, there isn’t much to go on. If you’re not looking at Liverpool when they’re having a good season or City, it’s probably best to steer clear. Even the worst sides only lose four or five times by this margin each year too.
Draws
The two teams who have played out the most bore-draws in recent times won’t like being paired together: it’s Brighton and Crystal Palace, despite the M23 derby not ending 0-0 during the period covered here. With 93-year-old Roy Hodgson back on board for another year, Eagles fans can expect to sit through a few more too.
Palace fall down the standings a little when looking at score draws, while Brighton hold firm. Both are overtaken by Nottingham Forest, though, with Steve Cooper’s side seeing two-thirds of their games either drawn or settled by a single goal last season.
Forest may well be the team to watch in this market in 2023/24 on this basis, but it can be very tricky to select a winner. Research the history of the two teams in your match of choice and bet sensibly.
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