Arne Slot’s red-hot Liverpool turn their attention to continental action on Wednesday as they resume their Champions League campaign. They’re heading to Germany for this interesting RB Leipzig v Liverpool game with a perfect two-from-two record while their hosts are yet to register a point.
Our tipster Oli Nixon is on hand to take a look at this match up with the Reds attempting to extend their impressive winning record. He’s scoured the player foul involvement markets to serve up a likeable ladder involving the mercurial madman Darwin Nunez.
RB Leipzig v Liverpool tips
Darwin Nunez foul involvements: 4 or more, 5 or more, 6 or more
WHEN: Wednesday 23rd of October, 8pm
WHERE: Red Bull Arena, Leipzig
TV: TNT Sports 1
The latest chapter in the Arne Slot masterclass takes place on Wednesday night as Liverpool head to Germany looking for their 8th win in a row in all competitions. The Dutchman has certainly taken to Anfield life quickly and will be hopeful of continuing his 100% record in this competition for his new club.
Opponents Leipzig have made a fast start of their own; 17 points from their opening 7 league fixtures sees them sat joint top of the Bundesliga, however, back-to-back defeats to open their Champions League campaign has left them facing an uphill battle if they’re to make the next stage of the competition.
One of the hallmarks of Slot’s style is his aggressive, high-energy press. Liverpool work tirelessly off the ball, hassling and harrying the opposition and smothering them in their defensive third to win the ball back as quickly as possible.
This approach comes with a high reward but equally tends to result in plenty of fouls and with the Reds committing the 8th most fouls in the Premier League this season, it’s to the foul involvements market we head for some value in this game. What makes this market particularly attractive is that our player can commit fouls or be fouled – either will do which means we get the interest every time the ball is in Liverpool’s attacking third, regardless of who has possession.
Central to Slot’s press is the work rate of his No.9 and with Diogo Jota likely to be missing through injury, that responsibility falls to Darwin Nunez and it’s the Uruguayan who we are backing to be involved in all things foul play on Wednesday evening. Nunez has found opportunities hard to come by this season and has therefore been eager to impress when he does get on the pitch.
In just 368 minutes of action, Nunez has committed 9 fouls and made 12 tackles, clearly emphasising how hard he is working off the ball. He has also drawn 1.22 fouls per 90 minutes and so is no stranger to drawing fouls to help us out too.
He has averaged 3.42 foul involvements per 90 this season including having had 7 from the bench against Chelsea on Sunday. Whilst Nunez’s numbers are crucial to this angle, we also need to consider the fouls drawn and committed by Leipzig’s 3 centre backs who will be opposing him.
The defensive trio of Castello Lukeba, Willi Orban and Lukas Klostermann have combined for 1.73 fouls committed and 1.93 fouls drawn per 90 this season and in particular, it’s likely to be Orban who is tasked with containing Nunez. The Hungarian has the most foul involvements of the three Leipzig centre backs and looks set for a war of attrition with our man Darwin.
In Leipzig’s last Champions League tie with Juventus, Orban was involved in a similarly intense match-up with Dusan Vlahovic, a combination which saw the Serbian striker have 5 foul involvements.
Whenever taking a bet like this, the real value lies in ‘laddering’ the selections which means we can reduce stakes and play multiple lines. This means that once Nunez has had 4 foul involvements, every one after that can see us counting more and more profit. With him having had 7 foul involvements in just 60 minutes against Chelsea at the weekend, odds for him to have 6 in this game stands out as a monster price.
RB Leipzig v Liverpool betting tips
Darwin Nunez foul involvements: 4 or more, 5 or more, 6 or more
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
READ MORE
- Shoot on over to Paddy Power News for the best Football Betting Tips & News
- Premier League top scorer odds: Who are the favourites to win the Golden Boot this season?
- Premier League title odds: Who will win the crown this season?
- Paddy’s Super Sub totaliser: Almost 100,000 EPL bets win from our ace offer so far in 2024/25
The latest football odds are on PaddyPower.com now
THE PADDY POWER GUIDE TO SAFER GAMBLING – EVERYTHING YOU NEED TO KNOW
