Here we go then, it’s almost time for the 2024/25 Champions League to kick off and it’s back with a shiny new format that yer da is looking forward to moaning about on Facebook.
We’re all getting our head around this exciting new European Super League Swiss Format where everyone’s plonked in to one great big group and plays eight games against eight different opposition.
Frankly it makes working out who’s going to go well and who’s stinking the place out way more complicated than it needs to be but fear not, here at Paddy Power News we’ve enlisted the help of the one and only Mark Lawrenson, the big man, Paddy Power, and some of PP News’ top tipsters – Colin Harvey, Feargal Brennan and Mark Kirwan – to sort the wheat from the Champions League chaff.
Outright winners
Lawro: This is so tough but the default answer has to be Real Madrid. Manchester City are an amazing side but Real just have the knowledge and the quality. Liverpool are in a bit of transition and so are Real Madrid to be fair but it’s just what they do.
As the 2024/25 UEFA Champions League campaign gets underway, there are two clear leaders in the market, defending champions Real Madrid and 2023 winners Manchester City. Despite City falling to Los Blancos at the quarter final stage last season, the pair are some distance ahead of the chasing pack, and could meet in the final if the draw falls that way.
The gap between them is as narrow as ever, but Real Madrid have two key edges. greater experience and Kylian Mbappe, whilst Julian Alvarez’s exit leaves City even more reliant on Erling Haaland.
Mark: There’s usually one very simple question that can cut through the bluster when you want to put some money down on Europe’s premier club competition: Is the team you are looking at named Real Madrid? If yes, that’s your bet, if no, try again.However, sometimes plucky little clubs come along and upset the odds despite UEFA and the big clubs doing everything to stop them – even Tottenham have made the final within recent memory!
This year’s edition has a prime candidate to disrupt the established order in the shape of German champions Bayer Leverkusen. They won the Bundesliga undefeated and at a canter last season, and if they’d been in the Champions League they probably would’ve won that the way they were playing. They have kept the team together somehow for one more season and hung onto manager Xabi Alonso despite the approaches of Bayern Munich and Liverpool. They seem to have an unerring confidence in themselves to turn around dire situations and allied with boundless energy that gives them hope in any game. They are also thrilling to watch and at 25/1 or thereabouts they are worth an each-way punt.
To Reach The Final
Paddy: Inter Milan won Serie A last season and have started this season strongly as well. They lost to Manchester City in the final two years ago and they just look a good price to go really far. Italian teams in Europe? Always worth a look.
Colin: You have to expect that Bayern Munich‘s total wipeout on the trophy front last season was a blip. The impact of new boss Vincent Kompany is the great unknown at the Bundesliga giants but, if normal service is resumed in the German football hierarchy, he’ll be able to focus on the Champions League from around March when it really hots up so they could be value for a run to the final.
League Stage Winners
Lawro: With this mad new group stage it’s basically just the European Super League rebranded. With so many games and each team playing different ones you can only go for ones of the big boys.
You’re looking at Liverpool, Paris St-Germain, Real Madrid and all that. Everyone’s got such deep squads and so many players that when they make changes there’s barely a drop off in quality. As it’s a big price I might just go for Liverpool, Arne Slot will try and win every game he can this season.
The new-fangled league phase means a major change to the Champions League this season as teams battle in one elongated league table to reach the last 16 knockouts. With more games on the agenda, the key aspect could come down to when the top teams play their biggest rivals, and how likely they are to take points off them in the first phase.
Hansi Flick has enjoyed a strong La Liga start at Barcelona, and he already has a Champions League title under his belt from Bayern Munich, with his young side having something to prove this season. Barcelona’s home game against his old team will be crucial in October, but a team lacking in experience is likely to push hard until the crunch part of the season, where street smarts rule the roost.
Mark: It’s difficult to get a read on the new league stage, though I think we’d have to assume that teams will look to manage their workloads and if top-eight is good enough to qualify we could see some weakened sides in the latter rounds of the qualification phase. However, clubs perceived as having something to prove might see topping the standings as a goal in itself and a statement of intent.
A stand-out side in this respect is PSG. They have failed in their Galactico era but have a good manager in Luis Enrique, they have some very exciting players – Ousmane Dembele, Bradley Barcola, Achraf Hakimi, Vitinha, while Fabien Ruiz had a case for being player of the tournament at the Euros – and, famously, they play in Ligue 1 which, apparently, is an impediment to them winning the Champions League because they just aren’t tested enough. The new Champions League format should, in theory, offer them more competitive games and they ought to really go all out to win each of their ties in the opening phase. If they do they should be near the top of the league.
Top scorer
Lawro: I’ll go for Erling Haaland. He’s won it twice before when he was at Dortmund and the year City won it. He didn’t win it last year so he’ll probably come back and score another bucket load to right that wrong. He does pick up injuries but when he’s on fire he scores loads and he gets plenty against the weaker sides which City will play more of with more games this time around.
The natural reaction here is to go straight for Haaland but he has the weight of Man City on his shoulders this season. Injuries and rotations impacted his game time in Europe in 2023/24 and he only managed six Champions League goals.
Harry Kane and Mbappe shared the 2023/24 Golden Boot with eight each in the first time the title has been won by sub 10 goals since Lionel Messi in 2010. The extra games should see the numbers edge up but Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah is an exciting option as he appears hell-bent on a brilliant (and potentially final) season at Anfield.
He rolls into the tournament with 44 UCL goals, with only Robert Lewandowski, Thomas Muller and Mbappe scoring more on the currently active list, and he will be going all-out for another huge European push.
Mark: The additional games and abolition of home-and-away group ties must favour the big-hitters – your Kanes, your Mbappes, your Haalands – but last season’s was shared by Harry and Kylian with just eight goals each when usually double-digits are needed. Antoine Griezmann, Vinicius and Erling Haaland were tied on six the next rung down. Further, when the Norwegian goal monster rammed home 12 on City’s cruise to the crown a season earlier, second place went to Mo Salah with eight and third and fourth saw Mbappe and Vini tied on seven. The season before that, Mo Salah again finished fourth with eight goals to his name.
As such, it’s worth looking at someone who could get to that kind of number in the new format at a larger each-way price and letting the shorter-priced options sort it out between themselves.
Arsenal’s Kai Havertz does not have an especially prolific touch in the competition, though he didn’t really have one in any competition until about half way through last season. He’d only scored once up until November 25th last year for his club, but in 36 games since then he’s scored 15 times. We also know how dangerous Bukayo Saka is and Arsenal should be looking to make it to the latter stages here – they are third favourites for the trophy. Both of these are priced at 40/1 pre-tournament and should be in position to score more than half-a-dozen with the number of games Arsenal are likely to play. An each-way play on both could return at quarter-odds (at least) by the end of the season.
Top 8 finish
Colin: Borussia Dortmund do have to face Barcelona and Real Madrid in the league stage and the super computer says you normally need six wins or 16 points to finish in the top eight. They made it to the final last year so clearly have the pedigree to go deep. Other than the two Spanish giants their fixture list looks quite kind so if they can pick up a point or two there they’re a good bet to finish in the top eight and progress straight to the last 16.
To finish 9th to 24th
Paddy: Celtic look to have a pretty kind fixture list and their hardest games come away from Glasgow. If they can perform well at home they’ve got a great chance of finishing in that middle pack and qualifying for the knockout stages.
To finish bottom of the league stage
Colin: This could be a competitive race to the bottom and there’s a couple of teams in here who are going to be serial whipping boys. It would come down to a game week 4 clash between Slovan Bratislava and Dinamo Zagreb to see who’s getting their hands on the wooden spoon as both have horrendous fixtures to contend with as they’re both Pot 4 sides. As Slovan have home advantage in that match and as Dinamo are the bigger price I’ll go for the latter.
Champions League outright betting tips
Winner
Lawro: Real Madrid
Feargal: Real Madrid
Mark: Bayer Leverkusen (each-way)
To reach the final
Paddy: Inter Milan
Colin: Bayern Munich
League stage winners
Lawro: Liverpool
Feargal: Barcelona
Mark: PSG
Top Scorer
Lawro: Erling Haaland
Feargal: Mo Salah
Mark: Kai Havertz, Bukayo Saka (each-way)
Top 8 finish
Colin: Borussia Dortmund
To finish 9th to 24th
Paddy: Celtic
To finish bottom of league stage
Colin: Dinamo Zagreb
Read More
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