Luton Town v Aston Villa Bet Builder Preview
- Handicap Betting: Aston Villa -1
- Over/Under 2.5 Goals: Over
- Anytime Goalscorer: Ollie Watkins
- Over/Under 11.5 Corners: Over
- Over/Under 3.5 Cards: Under
- A Bet Builder with these bets pays at approximately 23/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.
All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
In a weekend featuring a Manchester derby, a clash between Luton Town and Aston Villa won’t feel like the biggest show in town. But make no mistake, the outcome of this match could have serious repercussions at both ends of the table, as opposed to the top and mid-table when City and United meet.
Villa start the weekend five points clear of fifth-placed Tottenham Hotspur and as 4/6 fourth favourites to finish in the top four with Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester City all at 1/200, Unai Emery’s boys lead the market for the one truly available spot.
Luton, meanwhile, are odds-on to be relegated. It remains a confusing picture, with Everton gaining points back from a previous punishment while they and Nottingham Forest potentially face a future one. All the Hatters can do is try to close the gap to safety which stands at four points at the start of the weekend.
Handicap Betting: Aston Villa -1
While Luton have battled superbly to try to defy the odds and avoid relegation, the bad results have started stacking up. They lost 6-2 to Manchester City – Kevin De Bruyne and Erling Haaland, mainly – in the FA Cup on Tuesday, were beaten 4-1 at Liverpool in their last league game, and that followed a pair of truly embarrassing results: home defeats to the Uniteds of Sheffield and Manchester.
This is their final match at Kenilworth Road against the current (and likely final) top six and they took just one point from the first five. They also lost 3-1 at Villa Park in October, so the signs for Saturday evening are not good.
The visitors’ form has recently flipped. Unbeaten at home for so long, Villa suffered three consecutive defeats to Newcastle, Chelsea and United on their own patch. But they are unbeaten on the road in five games in all competitions.
The starting point with an eye on this game is Villa’s 5-0 win at Sheffield United. The Blades had Mason Holgate sent off in the first half and have been far more pitiful than Luton, but Rob Edwards will wonder if his team might suffer a vaguely similar fate.
Four of Villa’s five wins against the current bottom four have been by a two-goal margin this season, and although most of Luton’s home losses have been by one, they have started shipping goals recently. The visitors won’t score five but they can certainly overcome the handicap by winning by at least two.
Over/Under 2.5 Goals: Over
Emery’s men could obviously achieve a handicap-busting victory with a 2-0 win but there’s reason to expect more goals.
Only Liverpool, with 15, have won more matches which also paid out on Over 2.5 Goals than Villa have (13) in 2023/24. This means their only other victories were 1-0 triumphs against Arsenal, City and Chelsea – teams who are far stronger than Luton, and then Chelsea.
As only Burnley and Sheffield United have lost more games featuring at least three goals than the Hatters, we should be set for Over 2.5 Goals.
Anytime Goalscorer: Ollie Watkins
Sometimes in football betting it’s worth looking past the most obvious selection, to get more value. But how can you possibly ignore Ollie Watkins here?
He has five goals in his last five league games, a total only topped by Bukayo Saka (seven) and Rasmus Hojlund (six). Luton’s Elijah Adebayo also has five but is likely to miss out through injury.
His absence leaves Watkins as the only player on either side with more than four goals in their last 10 Premier League appearances. Back him to be among the goals here.
Over/Under 11.5 Corners: Over
There have been a lot of corners at Kenilworth Road this season, with an average of 11.6 per Premier League match and no game featuring fewer than nine.
There were 10 in the reverse fixture and with only two teams having had more on the road than Villa this term, Over 11.5 Corners looks wholly plausible.
Over/Under 3.5 Cards: Under
The card count for this game is tough to forecast. No team has seen fewer in total per game than Luton (3.7) but only two sides top Villa’s average of 5.0.
It makes sense to aim low here, simply because Michael Oliver is the man in the middle. His cards-per-game rate has risen this season, but from a very low point, and only two referees with a decent sample have shown over 4.5 cards in a lower proportion of their matches.
Seven of the 13 matches at Kenilworth Road so far this season saw no more than three, and another three featured four, so with Oliver in control there should be Under 3.5 Cards. Play nice, kids.
Luton Town v Aston Villa Bet Builder Preview
- Handicap Betting: Aston Villa -1
- Over/Under 2.5 Goals: Over
- Anytime Goalscorer: Ollie Watkins
- Over/Under 11.5 Corners: Over
- Over/Under 3.5 Cards: Under
A Bet Builder with these bets pays at approximately 23/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.
All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
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