Manchester United have been in a state of near-permanent crisis since Sir Alex Ferguson retired a decade ago. By assembling a team of veterans to win one last title and then selecting David Moyes as his successor, Fergie did what he could to ensure his feats would remain unmatched.
In the last 10 seasons, United have won three domestic cups and the Europa League but haven’t got particularly close to lifting either of the biggest prizes. Their best league effort is finishing 12 points off the top in 2020/21, which looks impressive against their record of two Champions League knockout tie wins since 2013.
Erik ten Hag’s side look a long way from winning either of these pots this season. United are 80/1 to lift the Premier League and 40/1 to become kings of Europe. With home defeats to Brighton (fine), Galatasaray (okay) and Roy Hodgson’s Crystal Palace (erm) as well as players unavailable due to off field issues and a potential sale dragging on, the club feels in as much of a mess as it ever has.
And yet they approach the derby with Manchester City this weekend in vaguely reasonable shape. If United were to win – and they took the fixture 2-1 last season – they would be just three points behind the defending champions. That wouldn’t make them likely title winners but do the eighth place Red Devils (at the start of match week 10) have stronger hopes for a top four finish than we might think?
The history
It’s not impossible for a team to start a Premier League season in similar fashion and go on to have a very strong campaign.
United have 15 points from their opening nine matches, the same total City had on their way to winning the league just three seasons ago. Tottenham were at the same level the following year and finished fourth, while both Liverpool and Newcastle had one point fewer at this stage last season and were in the top five after 38 games.
A more realistic outcome can be seen if United look at their own history.
The sides of Jose Mourinho and Ole Gunnar Solskjaer both had 14 points from nine games in the seasons after they finished second, and the Red Devils ended both campaigns in sixth. Paddy Power has the class of 2023/24 priced at 11/10 to finish in the top six this term.
Corresponding fixtures
While it’s not worth worrying too much about how a team performs against its corresponding fixtures from the preceding season – as only around 40 per cent of outcomes repeat – United are having a very similar campaign to 2022/23.
Seven of their nine match outcomes have been identical, assuming we switch out the relegated sides for the promoted clubs.
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The problem for ten Hag is that his side lost at Tottenham, where they drew last season, and turned a 2-1 home victory over Palace into a 1-0 defeat.
Applying these rules across the division moves United from their third spot last term down to a predicted fifth place finish in 2023/24. They are currently 23/10 for a top five spot or 4/1 if you think they can retain their top four position from last season.
The underlying numbers
Something else the corresponding fixtures highlight is that United’s expected goal difference has got worse. The xG implies they have earned five points more then their performances have deserved, the third biggest such margin in the Premier League.
The results have often not matched the underlying data, a sign that it’s all been a bit random rather than performance driven. United should probably have lost to Wolves, were worth a point (or more?) at Tottenham and could easily have drawn at Burnley and Sheffield United.
The fact Jonny Evans assisted the winner at the former before Diego Dalot scored from 29 yards to settle the latter says everything.
And look at their recent European victory over Copenhagen, which needed a Harry Maguire goal and a stoppage time penalty save from the maligned Andre Onana. Chaos reigns.
The fixtures
Based on opposition points-per-game average, United (1.28) have had a more taxing start than Arsenal (1.17), City (1.05) and especially Tottenham (0.91), and their figure will increase with the derby this weekend. After that, only the Gunners will have played more matches in the big six clubs’ mini league too.
While no season can be decided by one game in October, the forthcoming clash with City feels enormous. Win it, and Paddy Power’s above prices will fall as United will close the gap on the teams above them and take a huge confidence boost.
Equally, the stumbling nature of their campaign means it’s impossible to make a case for taking those bets just yet. There’s too much up in the air.
*All prices quoted are correct at time of publication but subject to change
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