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Neither PSG nor Real Madrid approach this huge Champions League Last 16 clash in great form. The two sides may be clear at the top of their respective leagues, but both sides have been somewhat uninspired in the New Year.
Real Madrid’s form over the last four games will be of most concern. Draws against Villarreal and Elche sandwiched an unconvincing home win over Granada, while they were also dumped out of the Copa del Rey by Athletic Bilbao.
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PSG, on the other hand, have won their last four league games and have built an unassailable lead in the Ligue 1 title race but were awful against Rennes last time out when a late Kylian Mbappe strike was enough to hand them three points in a dour affair in Paris on Friday night.
But who will come out when they go head-to-head. Let’s take a look…
Tuesday 8pm: PSG v Real Madrid
BT Sport 3
*A Bet Builder with these four best bets pays at approximately 17/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.
PSG to Win
PSG suffered a surprise French Cup exit in recent weeks after they bowed out to Nice on penalties.
However, their form has been slightly better than Real Madrid’s and they should come into this game with more momentum.
They possess a number of match winners who can turn a game on its head in an instant and won all three home Champions League group games – including beating Manchester City.
Given that they registered just two draws and a defeat in their away games, they could do with extending their home winning run and taking some sort of advantage to Madrid in three weeks’ time.
Both Teams to Score
It is hard to envisage a scenario where either team fails to score on Tuesday night. The two sides scored a combined 27 goals during the group stages, with PSG scoring 13 and Real Madrid managing 14.
PSG managed just one clean sheet in six games during the group stages – ironically against group winners City – and have conceded 19 goals in 24 games in a league that they are walking away with.
Real Madrid, on the other hand, kept a far more impressive four clean sheets in six group games but have kept just eight clean sheets in their last 11 games in all competitions and boast just the third-best defensive record in Spain despite enjoying a four-point lead at the top.
This is the first time that Champions League knockout ties will not be decided by away goals, so it will be interesting to see how both PSG and Real Madrid approach this one. It should make for an open game, with PSG less likely to be paralysed by the fear of conceding an away goal.
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Lionel Messi to Have Three or More Shots on Target
Lionel Messi has endured a less than ideal start to life at the Parc des Princes since moving on a free transfer from Barcelona in the summer, scoring seven goals in 20 appearances, but there have been signs of improvement over the last few months. The Argentinian has scored three and assisted seven in his last ten games and has scored one and assisted three in his last four games since recovering from Covid-19.
He has also could have had a hatful more goals this season, considering he has already hit the woodwork nine times since his debut in August.
Messi has attempted 66 shots in 19 games in Ligue Un and the Champions League this season and finds the target with roughly one in every three attempts. He averages around two shots on target per 90 minutes in Europe and it wouldn’t be hugely surprising to see him better that average against a Real Madrid side that he has not scored against since 2018.
With that record in the back of his mind, Messi is likely to pepper the Real Madrid goal with shots on Tuesday night.
PSG Under 4.5 Corners
PSG do not win a whole lot of corners. Mauricio Pochettino’s side registered just 20 in six group games at an average of just over three per game. They won just two corners in two games against Manchester City in their only games against a truly elite European outfit.
Their recent record of 40 corners in their last six league games at a rate of almost seven corners per game is far more impressive, but it most be taken with a pinch of salt considering they are not competing on a level playing field with other French teams.
They have also recorded an average of just four corners per game in their last two league outings against Lille and Rennes. They are also taking on a Real Madrid side that has conceded 22 corners in their last six games in all competitions and just 19 in their six Champions League games.
PSG averaged fewer than four corners per game in the Champions League, while Real Madrid conceded an average of just over three corners per group game. Those figures are unlikely to change on Tuesday.
PSG v Real Madrid Bet Builder:
PSG to Win
Both Teams to Score
Lionel Messi to Have Three or More Shots on Target
PSG Under 4.5 Corners
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