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Nottingham Forest and Arsenal don’t have too much history in the FA Cup, having only previously met four times, but their clashes have usually proved significant. Arsene Wenger suffered the only third round exit of his career when his FA Cup holders were beaten at the City Ground in 2018.
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The latest football odds are on PaddyPower.com right nowFour months later, Le Professeur had left the club. Coincidence? I hardly think so. Happier times occurred for the Gunners in 1979 and 1993, when they beat Forest on their way to winning the trophy. Mikel Arteta’s side are joint-fifth alongside Tottenham in the betting to go all the way this year, and they’re obviously favourites to win this match.
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5.10pm: Nottingham Forest v Arsenal
TV: ITV and ITV Hub
Arsenal to win
While Arsenal fans were up in arms that a Liverpool side riddled with illness and devoid of their coaching staff ensured their League Cup semi-final match was postponed, it will have at least given Arteta more time to prepare his team for this match.
But what will they face? Few teams in English football have had as strange a 2021/22 season as Forest. Rock bottom of the Championship in mid-September with one point from seven games, they have only been one point shy of being the best team in the division for the period since.
Steve Cooper has done a hell of a job since succeeding Chris Hughton. However, their record against the top sides in the division does not inspire confidence ahead of the visit of Arsenal. They’ve played five home matches against sides who are currently above them in the table, and have lost the lot, scoring twice while conceding 11 goals. Add in away matches and their record against the current top 10 reads one win, two draws, and eight defeats.
While you should never underestimate the Gunners’ ability to self-destruct away from home, backing Arsenal to win in light of Forest’s record against better teams has to be the way to go.
Over 3.5 Goals
These teams haven’t met too often in recent times but when they have there have been goals galore. Their last clash came in the 2019/20 League Cup and on that occasion Arsenal ran out 5-0 winners.
Wenger’s love affair with the FA Cup ended with a 4-2 defeat but his side did win 4-0 at the City Ground on their visit prior to that in 2016. The Gunners’ last two away games saw them rattle in plenty of goals against struggling Premier League sides too.
They won 4-1 at Leeds and 5-0 at Norwich, and only four teams in the division have scored more goals away from home this season. With only three teams in the Championship having fewer clean sheets on their own turf than Forest, it’s reasonable to think there will be Over 3.5 Goals.
Over 4.5 Arsenal Corners
But while goals look guaranteed, there isn’t necessarily going to be loads of corners. Arsenal’s league matches have averaged 10.1 so far in 2021/22, while Forest have seen just 9.2 per game. It’s fair to say that the visitors should be doing most of the attacking, even if Arteta is likely to rotate his side a little.
The Gunners have had 40 corners in their 10 away league matches, and if we ignore their pastings at Manchester City and Liverpool where they barely got a kick, they’ve averaged 4.9 in the other eight games. With that in mind, Arsenal should clear the 4.5 corner hurdle here easily enough.
Over 3.5 Cards
With walking yellow card Granit Xhaka in town, this could easily turn into a feisty contest. More yellow cards have been shown to Nottingham Forest’s opponents than those of any other team in the Championship this season, and while not the dirtiest team themselves, it means their games have featured the joint-most bookings.
Referee Craig Pawson, the man in charge here, loves a yellow more than all-but-two of the Premier League’s regular refs. In the two Arsenal matches he has done this season, Pawson showed a total of 10 yellow cards.
If Arsenal race into a comfortable lead then this match could peter out in amicable fashion, but if it stays competitive for a fair while then there should be Over 3.5 Cards brandished by Mr Pawson.
Nottingham Forest v Arsenal tips
Arsenal to win
Over 3.5 Goals
Over 4.5 Arsenal Corners
Over 3.5 Cards
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