Football tips: Chelsea to beat Brentford in this 25/1 Bet Builder for Saturday’s evening kick-off

Our top tipster Andrew Beasley is backing the Blues in the west London derby.

By / Football Tips / 3 years ago

* All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

Having bloodied the noses of Arsenal and Liverpool at their bus stop in Hounslow, Brentford will hope to embarrass another of the European Super League big boys when Chelsea come calling for a west London derby on Saturday evening.

The Blues won’t arrive in sparkling form either, having lost to Manchester City and Juventus directly prior to their 3-1 victory over Southampton in their most recent match.

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Brentford v Chelsea – Saturday, October 16: 5.30pm
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But equally they have been very strong on the road in the Premier League since Thomas Tuchel took over. Chelsea have played 12 away league games on his watch, winning eight and drawing three, losing only at Aston Villa on the final day of last season when they somehow squandered six clear-cut chances.

This match is also their first away from the Bridge against a team from outside the established big six. Chelsea won at Arsenal and Tottenham, drawing at Anfield when having to play the second half with 10 men. With those games under their belts, Brentford should be a stroll, right?

*These selections in a Bet Builder pays at around 25/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.

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Chelsea to win

The Bees have impressed lots of people with their form so far this season, but my fellow stattos and I were not shocked as they had such strong underlying numbers in the Championship over the last couple of years.

However, an interesting aspect of their one loss so far in 2021/22 may come into play here. They were beaten 1-0 at home by Brighton in a match that featured just 11 shots in total, the fewest of any Premier League game this season. Only one match featured such little goalmouth action in 2020/21 too.

The teams largely cancelled each other out, and while it may have been a coincidence, both played with a back three, just as Chelsea will on Saturday.

It’s common for Tuchel’s Blues to play tight games too, so this match is unlikely to be a barnstormer. It took a moment of brilliance from Leandro Trossard to settle the Brighton game and Chelsea will have plenty of players who can deliver in a similar fashion, so they will win here.

Away Total Corners: Over 4.5

As the away side are likely to dominate possession – Brentford have the lowest home average in the division this season – then they are likely to force a fair few corners out of the Bees’ defence. Arsenal, Brighton and Liverpool have averaged 7.3 corners between them at the Brentford Community Stadium this season, and the Gunners had the fewest with five.

Similarly, Chelsea have also had 7.3 per game on the road and at least five in eight of their 12 away Premier League matches in the Tuchel era, with three of the four exceptions being at big six clubs rather than at teams in the little 14. Backing the Blues to have at least six corners isn’t the worst idea but let’s play it safer by going for over 4.5 instead.

Over/Under Goals Markets: Under 2.5 goals

As Brentford scored twice against the Gunners and put three past Liverpool, it may seem odd to say they’ll struggle to score here, but it looks likely that they will. While they had 10 shots in the box against Jurgen Klopp’s side, like buses they often came in pairs. Only two of their second-half attacks in that 3-3 draw resulted in shots in the box and although they also resulted in goals, that sort of hit rate is not sustainable.

And they’ll be up against one of the most impenetrable back lines around too. In their 12 away league games under Tuchel, Chelsea have conceded just seven goals and only more than once on one occasion (at Aston Villa). With the Blues only averaging a tick over two goals per game this season it seems very likely there’ll be under 2.5 in this match.

Mason Mount to score anytime

The Premier League currently has a gang of 10 players who have accumulated at least one expected goal without scoring so far this season, and one of them will probably appear here. The man in question is Mason Mount, and his goal drought in the league actually stretches back to Chelsea’s absurd 5-2 loss to West Bromwich Albion in early April. He’s made 12 appearances since, firing shots worth around 2.5 expected goals with nothing to show for it.

That can’t last forever, can it? What’s that, Timo? It can? Oh. Well anyway, with Romelu Lukaku possibly going to miss the match, Chelsea will need goals from elsewhere and I think Mount can be the man for them here.

Brentford v Chelsea tips

Chelsea to win
Away Total Corners: Over 4.5
Over/Under Goals Markets: Under 2.5 goals
Mason Mount to score anytime

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