Football Tips: Our 3 best bets for Finland v Wales on Wednesday

* All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

Value Bet: Wales to Win

Wales have an excellent opportunity to warm up for crucial qualifiers with Belarus and Estonia against a Finland side that will prove rigid and difficult to break down. Finland showed they were a well organised but ultimately limited side in their three Euro 2020 group games, barely managing a shot in anger against Russia and Belgium after beating Denmark in their opener in unique circumstances.

That victory against the Danes was their only success in their last nine games in all competitions and friendlies, and they desperately need to return to winning ways soon with a crucial World Cup qualifier against Kazakhstan on the horizon. They will never be embarrassed by a cricket score defeat, but they are unlikely to inflict one either.

Wednesday 5pm: Finland v Wales
S4C/Sky Sports Main Event/Sky Sports Football

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Wales edged out Finland in both Nations League games between the two sides last year, with Kieffer Moore’s 80th-minute winner proving the difference in a closely fought 1-0 win in Helsinki. Wales prevailed 3-1 in the return fixture after Jere Uronen was sent off after 12 minutes, so it is difficult to read too much into that result.

However, Wales proved that they are a better team than Finland in both games, albeit only slightly, and they should have enough to earn a morale-boosting victory ahead of two must-win qualifiers.

RobPageWalesMar21

Safe Bet: Under 2.5 Goals

As mentioned above, Finland are unlikely to suffer heavy defeat but are equally unlikely to inflict them. The Finns scored just once during Euro 2020, conceded three times and were involved in the least number of goals of any team at the tournament. Their Nations League campaign was equally unremarkable, with four of their six games resulting in two goals or fewer.

Of the two games that saw more than two goals, one was that 3-1 defeat to Wales when they were reduced to ten men after 12 minutes and the other was a 2-1 win over Bulgaria when their opponents nabbed a late consolation.

Eight of Finland’s last 11 competitive games have witnessed two goals or fewer and it seems unlikely that this trend will change drastically against Wales on Wednesday. All three of Wales’s group games at Euro 2020 witnessed two goals or fewer, with Rob Page’s side often happy to surrender possession and territory and hit teams on the break.

Wales, like Finland, are defensively pragmatic and unlikely to be involved in a high-scoring thriller.

Long Shot: Wales to Win 1-0

If Wales and Finland’s Nations League experience is anything to go by, this game is a nailed-on certainty to finish 1-0. Wales and Finland were involved in by far the most boring and low-scoring Nations League group in the competition’s short history last year along with the Republic of Ireland and Bulgaria.

The group saw just 17 goals in 12 forgettable games, with almost 25% of those goals coming in a game where a team had ten men for 75 minutes. Five of Wales’s six results finished either 0-0 or 1-0, while four of Finland’s results saw two goals or fewer.

Wales recorded a 1-0 win over Finland in Helsinki last September and could very well do the same on Wednesday night.