* All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
On Thursday night in South America and Friday morning our time we’ll be swinging by the southern continent’s World Cup qualification matches. There are some big names are involved too, Argentina are away to Venezuela, Brazil are in Chile and Peru host Uruguay. Let’s take a deep dive into the stats and see if we can find some value in the markets.
Argentina play their first game as reigning Copa America champions as they take a trip to Venezuela. As it stands Argentina are six points behind Brazil in the qualification group, but four teams will qualify and the fifth-placed team will go into a qualifier. Lionel Scaloni’s should walk this match as Venezuela have only won one of their last 10 fixtures in all competitions, while Argentina have now gone 20 without tasting defeat.
The sides have met four times since 2016 in competitive matches with Argentina winning two, Venezuela one and one ending in a draw. Both Teams to Score landed in three of those four games and Over 2.5 goals came up in two of them. Venezuela tend to struggle for goals, over their last six matches they only scored in two. On the flip side, Argentina have kept four clean sheets over their six most previous encounters. Argentina to Win to Nil has a pretty decent price here considering those stats.
Chile and Brazil have only played three times since 2015 and indeed the identity of the Brazilian line-up has changed so much over the six years since then, that only three our their squad from 2015 are in coach Tite’s selection here. Chile won that match, while Brazil have been victorious in both matches played since then. Chile didn’t have a great Copa America, winning just one of their four games. Brazil won five, drawing one, before losing the final to their great rivals Argentina.
At home, Chile’s form is a bit better. They’ve won three of their last five on home soil. Over those five matches, Both Teams To Score landed in two, with Overs occurring in just one, and Chile have scored six goals and conceded four.
Brazil’s last four away games (not including the Copa final) saw them win all four, keeping three clean sheets in the process, scoring 13 and conceding just two. Brazil have scored at least two goals in all five of their most previous away competitive away games and they should win here, but we can add a little extra to the odds by backing Brazil to Win and Over 1.5 Goals.
Peru ended the Copa America with a fourth-place finish, while Uruguay had been put out in the quarter-final on penalties by the team who beat Peru in that match, Colombia. Peru have won just one of their last five games, drawing two and losing two. For their part, Uruguay have won two of their last five outings.
The sides have met five times over the last five years with Uruguay winning two, Peru winning one and two ended level – with Peru winning one of those on penalties. We must add that two of those contests were friendlies.
Peru have so far lost all three of their home World Cup Qualifiers, scoring two goals and conceding a worrying nine. Uruguay have won one, drawn one and lost one over their three away qualifiers. Neither Luis Suarez nor Edinson Cavani will feature here. Saurez has picked up a knee injury and the UK government won’t issue a quarantine exemption for Cavani.
Without their best players, Peru should be able to inflict some damage on Uruguay, as they’ve scored eight over their last five games. Uruguay have only scored four in that period, and without Cavani and Suarez, we’re tempted to give Peru the nod here. Their home record isn’t good though, so let’s take a wee bit of insurance and go with the Draw No Bet odds.
World Cup qualifiers tips summary:
01:00 Venezuela v Argentina: Argentina To Win To Nil
02:00 Chile v Brazil: Brazil To Win And Over 1.5 Goals
02:00 Peru v Uruguay: Peru Draw No Bet
* A treble on these three best bets pays at approximately 10/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.
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