* All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
Makes me sick, motherf****r, how far we done fell. Not my words, the words of Derby County and Nottingham Forest fans. And yes, it may be from The Wire as well, but perhaps the sentiment has never been stronger around these parts of central England. Saturday sees the latest renewal of the Brian Clough Trophy and a new yearning for glory days that get further and further away. It’s well over 40 years now since Old big ‘ed was in his pomp.
Anyway, we can’t wallow in nostalgia forever because there’s a new opportunity for heroes to emerge in the East Midlands Derby on the telly at 12.30pm on Saturday. Elsewhere it’s Peterborough, who are desperate to stay in The Championship, taking on West Brom who are equally desperate to get out of it. This could be a couple of crackers so let’s have a go at unearthing some value for your second-tier Saturday TV fare.
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12.30pm: Derby v Nottingham Forest
Here we go then. The Brian Clough Trophy, The East Midlands Derby, Derby County v Nottingham Forest, crisis club v crisis club. Rather surprisingly it’s Forest who sit rock bottom of The Championship at this early stage with Derby occupying the relatively lofty position of 14th after four games.
Derby were written off before a ball was kicked. Just before a ball was kicked we still weren’t sure what league they were going to be playing in, such was the shambolic nature of their finances and the running of the club.
Saturday 12.30pm: Derby County v Nottingham Forest
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They scrambled to get some players in while under a heavily restricted transfer embargo and off-the-field issues were headlines again at Pride Park. But, despite all this, they’ve started okay and have five points to their name.
Forest, on the other hand, were expected to potter along and probably finish lower mid-table. They’re yet to win a game this season and have lost every league match by a one-goal margin. So what do we make of game in which you simply cannot back either team to win with any kind of confidence?
Best Bet: Both Teams To Score? No & Under 2.5 Goals
Both Teams To Score? No and Under 2.5 Goals, that’s what I make of it. Forest have actually had Over 2.5 Goals in three of their four games while Derby have had it just once. Both teams have also scored in three of Forest’s games but two of Derby’s.
This is going to be cagey with both teams realistically knowing that defensive football is their best chance of staying in this league. With so much on the line, I can’t see this being a classic in any way, shape or form. I have a sneaky feeling Derby will win this but in terms of a best bet it’s worth siding with a low-scoring affair, probably a 0-0. Both Teams To Score? No and Under 2.5 Goals is your best bet.
Value Play: Derby to win by exactly 1 goal
If you fancy something a little longer I think the trends are pointing towards Derby to win by exactly 1 goal and that’s not necessarily because of the Rams’ exploits. Sure, their only win this season came courtesy of a 1-0 triumph over newly-promoted Hull, but that result is an outlier.
Instead, it’s worth glancing your eye over Forest’s efforts this season. Other than their 4-0 pasting against Wolves and the 2-1 win over Bradford, both in the Carabao Cup, Chris Hughton’s men have lost all four Championship games by a one-goal margin. Three times they’ve lost 2-1 with a 1-0 last weekend at Stoke completing the set. We’re siding more with Forest being crap than The Rams being good but at least some of the signs point towards Derby to win by exactly 1 goal.
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8pm: Peterborough v West Brom
Later in the day it’s the perennial yo-yo side West Brom against one that’s slowly been building through incredibly shrewd transfer activity in Peterborough. Both have started just fine and The Baggies sit second on goal difference behind Fulham while the Posh are 17th with four points from four games.
Saturday 8pm: Peterborough v West Brom
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Both sides will come into this one well-rested and raring to go after West Brom made 11 changes for their 6-0 battering against Arsenal’s 1st team and Peterborough gamely crashed out of the Carabao Cup courtesy of a 4-0 pasting against Plymouth in the first round so had the midweek off. West Brom at the big favourites in Paddy’s markets but let’s try and work out where the smart money should be going.
Best Bet: Over 2.5 Goals
Happily the smart money should be on goals – and lots of them. Discounting the Carabao Cup games, these two have witnessed 27 goals across their combined eight games, an average of 3.37 per game. If I really want to cook the books I can add in those EFL Cup games and the average shoots up to 3.7. You can expect The Baggies to dominate here as they clearly have the superior resources and squad available. They’ve been averaging four goals per game and with Peterborough’s leaky defence we should easily pass the Over 2.5 Goals benchmark here.
Value Play: West Brom to Win & Over 3.5 Goals
This all leads me to expect a high-scoring win for the visitors. Given the numbers outlined above, this should see plenty of goal-mouth action with attack preferred to defence. This West Brom to Win and Over 3.5 Goals punt has landed in 50% of The Baggies’ league games this season and both of those were against more established second-tier sides. The Posh have been holding their own but they’ve not come up against a team of West Brom’s calibre yet. This could be carnage.
Saturday Championship tips
12.30pm: Derby v Nottingham Forest
Best Bet: Both Teams To Score? No and Under 2.5 Goals
Value Play: Derby to win by exactly 1 goal
8pm: Peterborough v West Brom
Best Bet: Over 2.5 Goals
Value Play: West Brom to Win and Over 3.5 Goals
* All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
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