Football tips: Paddy’s 3 best bets for Scotland’s tricky trip to Israel

Paddy's form guru Paddy Murphy is struggling to separate these two sides.


* All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

Neither Israel or Scotland got their Qatar World Cup qualification campaigns off to the best start during the week. Israel were 0-2 losers at home to Denmark while Scotland drew 2-2 with Austria at home. With Austria and Denmark being the favourites to top the group, both teams will be desperate to take the full three points on offer to keep them up with the favourites.

We’ve gone through the stats and form of both teams here to find the three Best Bets, let’s have a look at where we’ve found some value.

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Israel v Scotland – World Cup qualifier
Sunday, March 28 – 7.45pm
Sky Sports Main Event

Match Odds: The Draw

There’s little between these sides in the betting odds. Scotland would appear to have the better players in their ranks but they’ve always been a side who love to make things difficult for themselves and have often stolen defeat from the jaws of victory when it looked assured. That being said, this Israel side have only won three of their last 15 matches. One of which was a Nations League match against the Scots.

At home they’ve won just two of their last six, drawing one and losing three, although prior to those six they enjoyed a run of six undefeated matches at home. Scotland have now won just one of their last five matches, drawing two and losing two. But, like Israel, they had been on a good run prior to that goinh seven matches without defeat, winning five and drawing two. Scotland’s away form has seen them winning just two of their last seven, losing four and drawing one. Really then, both teams are as bad as each other and if ever an international match had ‘draw’ written all over it, then this is certainly one.

Both Teams to Score: Yes

Just because we think we’re looking at a draw certainly doesn’t mean it’ll end 0-0. Israel haven’t had a home 0-0 since Steve McClaren’s England were held scoreless back in 2007. 2010 was the last time Scotland recorded a 0-0 away match (it was against Lithuania), and sorry to any Scots for bringing back that awful memory!

Israel have bagged at least one goal in 12 of their last 13 matches on home soil and Scotland have made it onto the scoresheet in six of their last 11. While it’s a record that’s not as good as Israel’s, the away side will be all too aware that anything less than a win here will make a huge dent in their qualification hopes. We should say as well that Scotland have scored in nine of their last 12 home/away matches and Israel have only kept three clean sheets over their last 15 at home.

First Half Under 0.5 Goals

While both sides usually register a goal in their matches neither are exactly well-known in world football for pounding their opponents into submission. This is especially evident in the first half of their recent matches.

Over their last six matches at home, Israel only scored in the first half in two of those matches. Looking at Scotland’s away matches, they’ve only scored in the first half in three of their last nine matches in their travels. The market is expecting an early goal here but with those stats, we’re getting some mighty value by backing Under 0.5 first-half goals.

* All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

Israel v Scotland tips

Match Odds: The Draw
Both Teams to Score: Yes
First Half Under 0.5 Goals

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