Chelsea created plenty of chances in the reverse fixture between these sides three weeks ago, recording 3.14 expected goals (xG) in a comfortable 3-0 win. In fact, Frank Lampard’s side have looked a significant threat in all competitions recently
Rennes’ first foray into Champions League action has been disappointing, gaining just one point in their opening three games. Their defensive process is a cause for concern, conceding chances equating to 2.47 xGA per game in those matches.
If Chelsea continue to create scoring opportunities at the same rate, they could hit the over by themselves. Rennes can pose a threat at home, though, making over 2.5 goals a solid play.
PSG welcome back Neymar for this match-up, a key cog in an outstanding attacking machine. Thomas Tuchel’s men have yet to hit top gear this season but are registering an average of over 2 xGF per game in all competitions. However, troubles at the back have surfaced in recent weeks, averaging 1.65 xGF per game in their last seven matches.
RB Leipzig are capable of taking full advantage of defensive issues, creating chances equating to an average of 1.80 xGF per game in the Champions League and Bundesliga this season. The first meeting between these teams was an enthralling end-to-end spectacle. A similar affair can be expected.
Over 3.5 Goals makes appeal in a must-win game for the home side.
Despite averaging over 2 xGF per game in their three UCL matches, Inter Milan remain winless in Group B, conceding a late winner to the reopposing Real Madrid in a 3-2 defeat three weeks ago. Antonio Conte’s side have been creating chances at will in Serie A, too, generating 2.49 xGA per game on average.
Although they won the first meeting, Real Madrid have been far from convincing in this competition, relying on late goals to claim their four points. Defensive problems are beginning to surface domestically, allowing 1.81 xGA per game, offering Inter real hope entering this game. Real always offer a threat in attack, though, averaging 1.99 xGF per game. They will contribute to an entertaining match-up.
At the prices, over 2.5 goals looks a good bet.
Liverpool flexed their attacking muscles at the weekend, racking up 4.35 xG in the absolute dismantling of Leicester. Injuries haven’t slowed down a devastating forward line, and Mo Salah may be cleared to return to the fold for this this game. Jürgen Klopp’s side have been fortunate to keep three clean sheets in the Champions League group stage though, allowing 3.69 xG.
Atalanta are in desperate need of at least a point from Anfield after the 5-0 beating in the reverse fixture. They will need goals to do so. La Dea are more than capable of that, though, averaging 1.95 xGF per game in all competitions this season.
Goals should flow at Anfield. As a result, over 3.5 Goals represents excellent value.
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