We’ve taken a deep dive into the stats for some of the biggest matches happening on Wednesday in the Champions League and found a lovely treble to get us over the hump in the week. We’re taking a look at Real Madrid v Shakhtar Donetsk, holders Bayern Munich hosting Atletico Madrid and Borussia Monchengladbach travelling to Inter Milan. Let’s have a look at where we’ve found value in the markets.
Real were really humbled at the weekend when they were surprise losers at home to Cadiz in the league. They were all huff and bluster and could only get two shots on target for the entire match. They’re going to need to do a whole lot better against an experienced Shakhtar Donetsk who aren’t afraid of anyone at this level.
Real are going to be without a few players here too. Captain Sergio Ramos is injured and glass-boned Eden Hazard is, of course, still out, however, this is still a squad bursting with talent and goals and nine out of the last 13 home CL matches have seen Over 3.5 goals being scored. Shakhtar are usually good for at least one on their European travels as well, they’ve scored in five out of their last seven on the road in Europe. We think they’ll be goals on the menu here and Real have the experience and firepower to bag the three points, so we’re backing Over 3.5 goals and the home side to win.
Bayern begin their defence of the Champions League title against one of the toughest opponents in the competition. Or are they, maybe that is just their reputation? The Germans won’t fear Atletico, and rarely lose at home in the Champions League. Indeed of their 10 previous matches they lost just two. Atletico’s away record isn’t nearly as good, they’ve won just one (and another in Extra Time) of their last eight on their travels in the tournament.
Bayern’s home scoring record is nothing short of incredible. In the Bundesliga they’ve averaged 4.4 goals over their last five home matches and in the Champions League they’ve scored at least three goals in four out of their last six at the Allianz.
While Atletico’s reputation is better than their stats suggest on the road they’re still incredibly tough to beat and have scored in four out of their last five matches on the road in Europe and Bayern don’t have a great Clean Sheets record at home either in the league or the Champions League.
This looks like it could be the game of the round and Bayern should take all three points, and with both in goal-scoring form we’re looking at goals too. Our pick is Bayern to Win and Over 3.5 goals.
Inter have really started the season with their scoring boots on. Over their four Serie A matches so far they’ve netted 11, and no doubt manager Antonio Conte will be happy with that, but they’ve also conceded eight, so there’s clearly room for improvement.
Gladbach haven’t started nearly as well as their Italian counterparts, however, they’ve been strong on their travels of late and over their last five away matches have scored 15 and conceded seven. We should see a few here as well so we’re backing Over 2.5 goals.
* All odds correct at time of first publishing but may change. Prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widget.
Champions League tips for Wednesday
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