Football tips: Our 4 best bets as Tottenham host Arsenal in the North London derby

Two of the 'Big Six' do battle in north London this weekend (erm, except one is 8th place, and the other 9th)

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The last few years have been rough for Arsenal fans. With no realistic hope of challenging for the top prizes, they could at least cling to finishing above their local rivals in the league. The annual feast of St. Totteringham was a day for Gooners to savour, but their celebrations have been on ice since 2015/16.

With four games to go in 2019/20, the clubs are neck-and-neck. The outcome of their latest battle, combined with who wins the FA Cup, may determine which team has European football next season.

Tottenham are favourites to win the latest North London derby, probably thanks to home advantage as much as anything. Yet there’s several statistics which suggest they don’t deserve to be.

Between Jose Mourinho taking over and their midweek draw with Bournemouth, Spurs have been the seventh-best team in the Premier League. But in Arteta’s time at the helm, Arsenal have been four points better than the Lilywhites.

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Tottenham’s home form in league matches against the other big five clubs is also a cause for concern. Their only win in their last six came against Manchester City, in the most dominant performance by an away team – on the underlying stats – in the big six mini-league across the last four seasons. Spurs only took three shots in that match and won 2-0, when in reality they should’ve been battered.

Fortunately for Mourinho, Arsenal’s record in big away matches is much, much worse. Since a win at the Etihad in 2015, the Gunners have played 26 league games at the homes of other clubs from the big six, drawing 10 and losing 16 of them.

Their discipline in such games hasn’t helped. Lucas Torreira was sent off at the end of this fixture last season, and Arsenal’s last two big away games have seen David Luiz dismissed. Whether that was a hindrance or a help is up for debate.

Michael Oliver’s in charge here and is one of the league’s least card happy referees, but he did send Francis Coquelin off in this fixture in 2016. But we saw at Goodison Park recently that a derby without fans can easily become quite a sedate affair.

LONDON, ENGLAND - NOVEMBER 28: Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang of Arsenal celebrates after scoring his team's first goal during the UEFA Europa League group F match between Arsenal FC and Eintracht Frankfurt at Emirates Stadium on November 28, 2019 in London, United Kingdom. (Photo by Shaun Botterill/Getty Images)

Tottenham v Arsenal betting tips

Bet: Draw

With the last two north London derbies ending all square, and Arsenal having drawn more games than any other team in the Premier League this season, this match looks set to be a stalemate.

Bet: Both teams to score

As much as Arsenal have a bad record in big games on the road, they normally score. Prior to their recent 3-0 defeat at Manchester City, in which they went down to 10 men, they had scored in their previous nine away games against the other top clubs.

And the only time they’ve kept a clean sheet since their last big away win came at Chelsea when the home side had a man sent off. You’ll never guess who it was – old Sideshow Bob himself, Luiz.

Tottenham are top of the Premier League for having the most matches in which both teams scored this season, so expect more of the same.

Bet: Harry Kane to score

Spurs have scored nine goals across their last six home games with Arsenal. Exclude Calum Chambers’ own goal in 2015 and six of Tottenham’s last eight derby goals at their various homes have been scored by Harry Kane. In his 10 league appearances versus the Gunners, Kane has only failed to score once.

With Heung-Min Son yet to score since the restart, Kane looks to be the only realistic scorer bet. But if you want slightly better odds, Steven Bergwijn scored at home against both Manchester clubs, so has big game pedigree.

Bet: Alexandre Lacazette to score

While Arsenal have bagged six goals across their last six trips across north London, none of the scorers are with the club now. Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Alexandre Lacazette have each scored in the last two league derbies at the Emirates, but no current Gunner has more than one away goal in the big six mini-league over the last three seasons.

Arsenal’s eight away league goals in 2020 have been scored by eight different players, so it’s very hard to say who’s in form. Lacazette has only started seven away league games this season, but scored at Wolves last time out so could carry that form into this one.

Tottenham v Arsenal tips summary:

Match to finish a draw
Both teams to score
Harry Kane to score
Alexandre Lacazette to score

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