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Chelsea may have failed to win their group and been drawn against a league champion from one of Europe’s top five leagues, but they couldn’t have asked for a better tie in the knockout stages of the Champions League.
They take on Lille who have struggled massively since beating PSG to the Ligue 1 title last season, currently finding themselves 11th, 23 points off the Ligue 1 summit.
Tuesday 8pm: Chelsea v Lille
TV: BT Sport 2
Granted, they topped their Champions League group in December, but that must be tempered with the fact that they found themselves in by far the weakest group in the competition, beating off Wolfsburg, Sevilla, and Red Bull Salzburg.
Here’s our four-fold Bet Builder for what’s sure to be an intriguing night of European action.
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Handicap: Chelsea (-1)
Lille’s form has nosedived in 2022, with the French champions winning just two of their seven games so far this year. They were ripped to shreds by PSG at home just two weeks ago and Chelsea have a real chance to put this tie to bed before travelling to France in three weeks.
That said, Chelsea’s form has also been less than impressive over the past three months.
They may have won each of their last five games in all competitions, but they have stuttered over the line in all of them bar a comfortable 2-0 win against Tottenham in January. Prior to that, they managed just one league win in seven games.
However, they should have far too much for Lille and can put themselves in a comfortable position ahead of the return leg in three weeks.
Both teams to score? No
Chelsea’s solid defensive foundation was key to their success in Europe under Tuchel last season. Chelsea conceded just two goals in seven knockout games under the German, keeping five clean sheets.
That defensive solidity has disappeared in recent months, but three clean sheets in their last five games in all competitions suggests that Chelsea are beginning to rediscover the defensive form that helped them win a second Champions League title last year.
Lille, meanwhile, have scored just two goals in their last four league games and managed just seven goals in six group games in the Champions League, by far the fewest goals scored by any group winner and the joint-fewest of any team in the last 16.
The French champions do boast considerable attacking potency in Jonathan David but are unlikely to breach the Chelsea defence on their own patch, especially considering Chelsea are yet to concede a Champions League goal at Stamford Bridge in five games under Tuchel.
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Jorginho to score anytime
There is a reason why Jorginho is Chelsea’s second highest goalscorer in all competitions more than halfway through the season. The midfielder has scored nine goals in all competitions for Chelsea this season, just one behind record signing Romelu Lukaku.
All nine of Jorginho’s goals this season have been from the penalty spot, with six of them coming in the Premier League, two coming in Europe, and one coming in the League Cup.
Chelsea have received the most penalties of any club in the Premier League this season with seven, while only PSG and Salzburg have received more than the Blues in Europe. Tuchel’s side are likely to dominate the ball against Lille and could conceivably earn their third European penalty of the season.
With Chelsea’s forwards struggling to find the back of the net with any consistency, it may once again to their defenders and midfielders to pick up the goalscoring slack.
Romelu Lukaku to score first
Romelu Lukaku arguably put in the worst Premier League performance of all time against Crystal Palace on Saturday, recording just seven touches of the ball in 90 minutes. It is genuinely impressive that Lukaku managed to see so little of the ball considering Chelsea finished the game with almost 60% possession.
Lukaku’s performance at Palace was yet another difficult moment in what has proved a unhappy return to Stamford Bridge. The Belgian striker may be Chelsea’s top scorer in all competitions, but 10 goals in 26 appearances is not what Chelsea fans would have expected from a £97.5 million signing.
However, Lukaku scored in each of Chelsea’s two games at the Club World Cup, with each goal coming as the first in the respective games. Six of the ten goals he has scored so far this season have come as the first goal in a game, while Lille feel like the exact type of mediocre opposition that Lukaku flourishes against.
He needs to hit the ground running on Tuesday night to put Saturday’s woeful performance well behind him.
Chelsea v Lille Tips:
Handicap: Chelsea -1
Both teams to score? No
Jorginho to score anytime
Romelu Lukaku to score first
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