Football Tips: Paddy’s top traders pick their weekend Cheat Sheet punts

Man Utd to beat Leeds

Whisper it but Man Utd have been showing some signs of progress of late, comfortably winning on Expected Goals in each of their last five league and cup matches.

The obvious caveat is the lack of real quality opposition that Ralf Rangnick’s side have faced in that run but there is no evidence to suggest that Leeds will provide a stiffer challenge.

Marcelo Bielsa is still likely to be missing Liam Cooper, Patrick Bamford, Kalvin Phillips and Stuart Dallas and it was concerning how easily Everton swatted Leeds aside at Goodison last week.

In the last three league meetings between the sides since Leeds’ promotion back to the top flight their bitter rivals have won 11-2 on aggregate and look a more than fair price to continue that trend.

Aston Villa to beat Watford

Aston Villa look like a new team with the arrival of Philippe Coutinho and Lucas Digne. It seems to have given a fresh spark to the side with the likes of Emiliano Buendia and Jacob Ramsey in top form.

However, this selection isn’t a banker due to the quality of this Villa side, It’s a banker because of just how bad Watford have been for some time now.

Their last premier league win came against a Man Utd side managed by Ole Gunnar Solskjaer. Since then Watford have picked up two points in 11 games.

Although Roy Hodgson has shored up their leaky defence, they haven’t scored in four games and Villa have more than enough magic in their squad to break them down.

Derby to beat Peterborough

Amid all the media attention on his documentary, Wayne Rooney’s Derby side look to be writing their own great escape story which is worthy of the big screen. Their well-documented troubles have left them fighting for Championship survival and possibly their existence as a club.

This is the epitome of a ‘six-pointer’. A win will see Derby level on points with Posh. They have won four and drawn one of their last five at Pride Park and the atmosphere is certain to be electric.

Peterborough have the worst away record in the league – 13 losses, one draw and only one win. They also had a midweek fixture to deal with – a 0-0 draw against another relegation candidate, Reading.

In truth, they deserved to win that game but only came away with a point – demoralised and heavy legged for their trip to Derby, I don’t see them getting anything here.

Leander Dendoncker to score anytime for Wolves v Leicester

Dendoncker scored at Tottenham last time out and looks an appealing price to repeat the trick.

He will carry a threat in the air from set pieces and that is where Leicester are extremely vulnerable having conceded the most goals of any team in the league from dead balls.

They have also conceded a shot on target to a central defender in each of their last five league and cup matches so the Belgian will be worth a look in the shots markets too.

Brighton v Burnley – Correct Score: 0-0

This has classic low scoring Saturday 3pm fixture written all over it. Brighton have drawn 12 of their 24 league games this season while Burnley have drawn 11 of their 21.

Neither of these teams are setting the world alight going forward with Burnley 19th in the goals scored table and Brighton 16th.

The Clarets will be more than happy to let Brighton have the ball and attempt to break them down, which after their midweek display at Man Utd is likely to be unsuccessful.

Treble: Stoke, Middlesbrough & Cardiff to win

Stoke have struggled with inconsistency all season but signed well in the January window and have impressed in their last two outings. They host Birmingham, who haven’t won away since October and have just one fit senior centre-back.

Middlesbrough sit top of the form table over the last 10 games with 23 points from 30, only conceding six times. Bristol City have improved at home in recent weeks but continue to ship plenty and Boro should have more than enough to get a couple.

Cardiff are another in-form side and look to have pulled well clear of a potential relegation scrap. They’ve won four of their last five – including impressive home victories over Nottingham Forest & Coventry. Blackpool are meandering in mid-table and haven’t won on the road since October. All the momentum is with the Bluebirds in this one.

Man City to Win & Both Teams to Score: No

It’s hard to see past another facile City victory with Tottenham struggling to gain any meaningful possession of late – not to mind goalscoring chances.

Only Southampton have found a way past Ederson in City’s last five league matches and Spurs will need Harry Kane and Son Heung-Min at their absolute to carry a threat on the counter attack.

Antonio Conte has few other players of real quality in Tottenham’s very limited squad and one suspects he may be questioning his decision to accept a contract from Daniel Levy as City stroll to another routine three points.

Son Heung-Min to have 2+ Shots on Target

Tottenham head north on the back of some disappointing results. However, this is a fixture they historically do not fear.

Spurs have somehow won three of their last four EPL games against City. Son Heung-Min has scored three of their five goals in those games which is most likely due to the way they set up to play.

The visitors will aim to soak up pressure and release Son on the break. He’s been in electric form and had 2 shots on target in his last league game against Wolves.

Rodri to be shown a card

As Niall mentioned, Spurs are likely to sit deep and try to break when they can with the pace of Son and Lucas Moura.

Rodri has been in fine form this season but is no stranger to a yellow card – he’s been well schooled in the dark arts of cynical fouls under the guidance of Fernandinho.

I expect him to have to stop one or two potential Spurs counter attacks hich should see him pick up his sixth booking of the season.