* All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
A bit like an impressionable teen getting a glance off someone semi-attractive, I’ve fallen in and out love more times with international football over the course of a day than I can count. Ireland went on to beat the might of the Azerbaijani empire on their own patch, before the UEFA Nations League built us up before letting us down – only to build us up again.
Even the dubious goal debate wasn’t tiresome, and that’s as good a justification to scrap VAR as you could want. Now, while we can have a fling with the quick feet of Callum Robinson and swoon over Kylian Mbappe’s cheeky grin – there’s one true love that stays by your side for 90% of the year.
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The Premier League endures. It cleans up your mess when you’ve to run out the door; it sticks up for your nonsense even when you don’t deserve it, and keeps you company on your Saturday while the world continues in motion around you.
So, as a love letter of sorts – this is for you, Barclays – you loveable lunatic. As usual, this is a BTTS acca, where we bring you through the 3pm slate and land you a tasty little warchest ahead of Sunday’s feature games. Let’s get it.
*An accumulator with these bets pays at approximately 20/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.
Leicester v Man United – No
This drives me mad. Because all my intuition tells me that both of these sides have tonnes of goals in them, but there are two key factors that steer me away from it.
The first is obvious – that we’re coming off an international break where routine is thrown out the window and generally fatigue takes over. The second: the xG. United’s 14 goals are the second-highest overperformance relative to their expected goals through the opening games of the Premier League.
Leicester are one of the seven sides to score a full goal more than their xG would hand them. These two are overperforming, and while xG doesn’t usually mean a return to average because better players score more difficult opportunities, the differences are too big for both here and it’s Both Teams To Score? No.
Man City v Burnley – Yes
City are the best team in the league and they’re more balanced than previously believed, but allowing one goal after a lengthy international break with a defensive disadvantage at set pieces, it’s not too hard to back Burnley. They’re almost 2.5 goals under their xG tally (City themselves are half a goal under) and are due some luck. A consolation here against a team who won’t take their foot off the gas when the points are secured means I think Both Teams might Score here.
Norwich v Brighton – Yes
Oi oi. Norwich are due four goals against their xG tally and with Teemu Pukki in the lineup, they’ve got a clinical finisher who won’t be off the scoresheet for long. Brighton are the second closest to their actual xG tally in the Premier League (next to Brentford) and for the eye test, Brighton pass it. I feel more comfortable backing them to score away from home, too. It’s a Yes from me.
Southampton v Leeds – No
Leeds have been really annoying thus far. We praised them too much last year, to the point that we’re not conversely criticising them too much now. And the truth is somewhere in between. Ralph Hasenhuttl comes under heat every year because his sides build up lovely and fail to find the net, before it ultimately rectifies itself late in the year. It’s now become cyclical and I won’t argue with his unwanted blueprint. We’ll round off with a No.
Saturday BTTS acca
Leicester v Man United – No
Man City v Burnley – Yes
Norwich v Brighton – Yes
Southampton v Leeds – No
*An accumulator with these bets pays at approximately 20/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.
ACCA INSURANCE
If one leg of your 4+ fold Acca lets you down, you get up to £/€10 back as a free bet. Customers can qualify for 1 Acca Insurance per day up to £/€10. The free bets will be credited by 12pm the following day.
* All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
Saturday’s Selections
- THOMMO’S TURBO TREBLE: 11/2 Power Price for today’s 3pm Prem games
- BEST BETS: Thommo & trader’s Leicester v Man Utd punts
- BET BUILDER: Chelsea to beat Brentford in this 25/1 flutter
- ACCA: Our tasty 32/1 5-fold for Saturday’s biggest games
- BEST BETS: Watford v Liverpool wagers from Thommo & our trader
- THOMMO: 4 Brentford v Chelsea best bets
- BET BUILDER: Mane the man in 30/1 Watford v Liverpool play
- ACCA: Hit the net with our 14/1 goal scorer gamble on Saturday
The Paddy Power Guide To Responsible Gambling – Everything You Need To Know
