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Portugal’s Cristiano Ronaldo and Czech Republic’s Patrik Schick currently top the goalscoring charts with five goals apiece, although Ronaldo holds a slight edge due to his assist in Portugal’s 4-2 defeat to Germany.
Of the players remaining in the tournament, only England’s captain Harry Kane boasts a significant chance of overtaking Ronaldo and Schick and claiming the golden boot. Kane’s four goals in the knockout stages have given him what seemed like an unlikely chance of taking home the top striking gong, but it remains highly unlikely that he will win it outright.
Kane will need to either score twice or score once and assist two to claim the award outright on Sunday night, a task that seems almost impossible considering the staggering defensive record that Italy boasts over the last three years.
Roberto Mancini’s side have not conceded two goals in a game since a 3-1 friendly defeat to France prior to the 2018 World Cup – a run of 36 games, they have also not conceded two goals in a competitive game in almost five years.
It seems unlikely that such a watertight defence would crumble on the biggest stage, let alone to the same player on two separate occasions – making the prospect of Harry Kane taking home his second golden boot in as many international tournaments decidedly unlikely.
There is also Kane’s poor record in major finals to consider. The England number nine has been anonymous in each of his three final appearances with Tottenham to the point where Spurs would have arguably been better off without him.
His odds of to finish as top scorer are not tempting enough considering he will likely finish alongside Ronaldo and Schick, resulting in a dead heat of three places.
If you do fancy Kane to finish as top scorer, a better bet may be Kane to score two or more goals against Italy. A brace in the final would guarantee Kane the golden boot outright and offers a far more attractive price, even if it is unlikely that he will breach the resolute Italian defence on two occasions.
It is just as likely, however, that Kane will fail to score against a stubborn Italian defence, meaning that a punt on Ronaldo or Schick to finish as top scorer is a safer bet in the outright top goalscorer market.
So, if you are going to back Kane to pip Ronaldo and Schick to the golden boot, why not go bold and back him to score twice and claim the gong outright.
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