*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widget, while in-copy odds are accurate at time of publication but subject to change
12.30pm: Aston Villa v Arsenal
Just when you thought Arsenal were putting their banter era behind them, there was the Wolves match.
Prior to the last round of fixtures, the Gunners had been the second best team in the Premier League for the period since Christmas, with five wins and two draws from their seven matches.
And they started very well at Molineux on Tuesday night, scoring once, hitting the woodwork twice and seeing a goal ruled out by the type of VAR decision which is killing the game, Jeff.
Saturday, 12.30pm: Aston Villa v Arsenal
BT Sport 1/BT Sport Ultimate
But then David Luiz was sent off – harshly, for once – before Bernd Leno decided the rules of football no longer applied to him and he could punch the ball when well outside his box. After their 2-1 defeat to Wolves, Mikel Arteta is unlikely to be relishing another trip to the West Midlands so soon.
As for Aston Villa, their form has been a little patchier, but five of their last eight league matches have been away from home and have included trips to face Chelsea and both Manchester clubs. They had been doing well at Villa Park recently, beating Crystal Palace and Newcastle, only to come unstuck to Jesse Lingard and West Ham on Wednesday.
Arsenal to win
Villa do at least have a much better record against the Gunners than in years gone by. Prior to Villa’s relegation in 2016, Arsenal had won eight of the previous 10 meetings, with an aggregate score of 26-5 in the favour across those matches.
But Dean Smith’s side won at the Emirates Stadium in November, and led twice there before losing 3-2 in 2019/20. They also won the corresponding fixture to this one back in July, and aside from their remarkable victory over Liverpool earlier this season, their only wins against the big boys since they returned to the top flight have been against Arsenal.
With Arteta having to field a back-up goalkeeper and rejigged defence thanks to suspensions, the home side might fancy their chances here and the odds reflect that this should be a close match.
However, with the Gunners having had an extra day to prepare and Villa faced with a very tight turnaround following the West Ham defeat – in which they were poor – this looks likely to be a match which Arsenal will win.
Both teams to score
The goal markets are going to be tough to navigate if we rely upon the records from the season so far. Aston Villa are near the bottom of the table for home matches where both teams scored, but are top for average goals per game. Keeping four clean sheets while also having a 7-2 win and a 4-3 defeat is going to paint that confusing picture, of course.
As for Arteta’s boys, they are near the back end of the pack for both of these particular statistics. Despite that though, there’s good reason to believe that neither team will finish with a nil against their name in this match.
Villa have both scored and conceded in five of their seven home games against the established big clubs since the start of last season, and while Arsenal have kept five clean sheets on the road in 2020/21, three of them have been against the current bottom six clubs in the league table. As the home side are considerably more potent than those strugglers, we should see both teams score here.
Over 2.5 goals
If you’ve been paying attention to this point, you’ll have noticed that the previous two predictions mean that there has to be at least three goals in the match. And fortunately for us, the form book is pointing towards that outcome.
Villa’s 1-0 victory in this fixture last season is their only ‘big six’ home game since they were promoted which paid out on under 2.5 goals, and the same is true of their games at Villa Park against teams who are above fifth bottom this season.
As four of Arsenal’s six away matches against the teams currently between fourth and 14th featured at least three goals, there should be over 2.5 goals here too.
Alexandre Lacazette to score anytime
This match sees one of the joint-best home scorers in 2020/21, Aston Villa’s Ollie Watkins, face up against one of the most lethal men on the road, Alexandre Lacazette.
Prior to the match with Wolves, in which the Gunners’ number nine was withdrawn at half time as Arteta had to reorganise to cover the Sideshow Bob-shaped hole in his defence, Lacazette had scored four goals in his previous three league matches away from the Emirates.
Watkins did net against West Ham, but should find Arsenal a tougher nut to crack. If you want a goal scorer bet for this match, take a look at Laca for your acca.
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widget, while in-copy odds are accurate at time of publication but subject to change
Aston Villa v Arsenal bet summary – Saturday, February 6
Arsenal to Win
Both Teams to Score
Over 2.5 Goals
Alexandre Lacazette to Score Anytime
These four selections in a Bet Builder will give you odds of around 5/1 with Paddy Power.
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More tips for Saturday
- 3 best bets for Coventry v Watford plus our 3pm EFL acca
- Phil Thompson’s best bets for Saturday – plus a 5/1 double
- Our 11/1 double for Saturday’s 3pm Premier League games
- PPTV’s 17/1 bet for two huge days of sport
- Our 31/1 bet builder for Fulham v West Ham on Saturday
- Man Utd to crash back to earth against Everton in this 46/1 Bet Builder
- Our fab 60/1 accumulator for Saturday’s European ties
Sunday’s tips
- West Brom can pile misery on Tottenham in our 3 best bets
- Barnes to bag a brace in our 3 best bets for Wolves v Leicester
- Thommo & our trader’s best bets for Liverpool v Man City
- Man City to pile pain on Liverpool in this 17/1 Bet Builder
- Our 3 best bets with Chelsea revival set to continue at Sheffield United
- Expect goals galore as Marseille host PSG in Sunday night thriller
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