Football Tips: Brighton forced to wait in our 3 best bets against Newport

The FA Cup action just keep coming and here's your three best bets for Sunday's late game.

Comments

*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widget, while in-copy odds are accurate at time of publication but subject to change

Is it through absolute coincidence that immediately following the ratification of Brexit that we land on FA Cup weekend? Is it mere serendipity that we happen to be celebrating the last great British institution in the wake of departing the EU?

What are the chances of the tie in question being played out between a side from Wales – a great part of the Union – and a team that sounds kind of like Britain? If you’re taking any of the above seriously, you might want to sit this one out, mate.

Sunday 7.45pm: Newport v Brighton
BT Sport 1 and BT Sport Ultimate

However, there is something quite unique and gorgeously ‘New Years’ about FA Cup action, even in the midst of the world falling apart. Maybe your resolutions have gone by the wayside already. Maybe you’re still finding remnants of Christmas decorations down your sofa, or worse, in your beard?

So what? There’s still time to start afresh and I, for one, cannot think of a better starting point than Brighton and Newport County in the Third Round. That’s not because there aren’t better alternatives; I’m just a bit hungover and I’m finding it hard to string two viable thoughts together. Still, here’s your three best bets for this somewhat novel clash.

Padraig Amond

Half-Time: Draw

Neither of these two sides have mustered a win in their last 12 games combined. If that doesn’t give you a big enough indication that both are struggling for confidence, well, I’m not sure what will.

It doesn’t tell the whole story though. Newport are actually second in League Two, just a point behind Carlisle – but that entire top half is somewhat of a concertina; resembling the Premier League, but for blokes who get sponsored by their local pie factories.

Given Brighton will likely hand a rest to a few key starters, expect sharpness to be an issue early doors and the half-time result here might have a few nervous punters sitting on that FA Cup acca the length of your right leg with only Brighton not a goal to the good at the break and the Half Time: Draw. Bloody Brighton, eh?

Padraig Amond to Score Anytime

Since 2018, only three players have scored more than 12 goals in the FA Cup. That list naturally features Sergio Aguero and Gabriel Jesus – both benefitting from the free-flowing, relentless build-up that City impose on opposition regardless of their calibre.

Well, that’s only two thirds of a list. The other comes from Carlow – a county in Ireland that really only contains Amond himself and all of Willie Mullins’ horses.

And while they’ve put in some leaps in their time, it’s not quite as impressive as the defensive hurdles Amond has bypassed in his time in cup competitions in England. Don’t be surprised to see a trend continue with Padraig Amond to Score Anytime.

Brighton (-1)

However, when we relay back to Occam’s Razor, there’s a more likely outcome than the nonsensical fairytale associations we like to brandish on the FA Cup. No, Occam isn’t a new signing for either of these teams – chance would be a fine thing – it merely states that in order to find the most likely outcome, you have to take the fewest assumptions possible.

At least I assume that’s what he was on about. Still no idea why he had a razor, mind you. Brighton (-1) on the handicap with a bit to spare.

Tips for Newport v Brighton

Half Time: Draw
Padraig Amond to Score Anytime
Brighton (-1)

*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widget, while in-copy odds are accurate at time of publication but subject to change

Read More

The latest FA Cup odds are on PaddyPower.com now

The Paddy Power Guide To Responsible Gambling – Everything You Need To Know

What do you think?