It was a fantastic weekend for Chelsea, who beat Brentford to extend their advantage over Arsenal, while closing the gap to Premier League leaders Liverpool.
There was plenty of drama elsewhere too, with winning goals in the 90th minute or later for Ipswich, Manchester United and Nottingham Forest. We’re no closer to getting one regular day of Barclays for Antonio Conte, it’s chaos every week around here.
Here’s five things our number cruncher Andrew Beasley noticed in Matchweek 16 of the 2024/25 Premier League.
Bye bye Gary
Having seen his side lose at West Ham on Monday, Gary O’Neil must’ve known he was on thin ice. A home loss to Ipswich inevitably saw the axe fall.
While Video Assistant Referees seem to view him as their personal punching bag, O’Neil can have few other complaints. Among the 17 clubs who have been in the Premier League throughout their now ex-manager’s time in charge, Wolves took the fewest points.
But, O’Neil can point to the narrow margins. The loss to Ipswich was the eighth Wolves game this season in which the expected goal difference was no more than 0.4 in either direction, the most of any club.
They earned five of their eight points in those games, but with a little sharper finishing, better goalkeeping or just a few breaks in their favour, they could easily be much better off. Merry Christmas, Gary.
Pep under pressure?
Liverpool supporters recently taunted Pep Guardiola by chanting he would be sacked in the morning. After losing the poorest Manchester derby anyone can remember right at the death, perhaps the possibility of Pep joining O’Neil at the job centre isn’t so remote.
While not playing particularly well on Sunday, City led on goals both expected and actual in the 88th minute, yet found time to lose. It means they have just one win and two draws from their last 11 matches in all competitions. Only against Nottingham Forest in that run did they not concede at least twice.
It’s just as well they won that match. Even with those three points, City have been the joint-worst team in the Premier League since the start of November, with only goal difference keeping them in 19th above hapless Southampton.
Their win-draw-loss record in that period is 1-1-5, which seems very apt
Liverpool survive Robbo’s red
An early red card used to spell doom for a team’s hopes of a positive result. Maybe they’re better coached these days, but it isn’t always as fatal any more.
Liverpool were dreadful for 17 minutes against Fulham at Anfield on Saturday, in which time they went behind and had Andy Robertson sent off. They then battled hard, twice equalising in a 2-2 draw. “I couldn’t have asked for more,” Arne Slot said after the game.
On the opening weekend, Newcastle had Fabian Schar dismissed after 27 minutes of a goalless game with Southampton yet went on to win 1-0. Arsenal held on for a point at the Etihad after losing Leandro Trossard in the first half, while Brentford did the same at Everton, when Christian Norgaard went for an early bath.
When betting in play, the match odds will shift following a red card. But, don’t dismiss the chances of the 10-men too easily.
xG Angst for Arteta
Football is cruel. A team can dominate a match from start to finish, have all the best chances and somehow contrive not to win.
There have been 14 Premier League matches this season in which one side had at least 1.2 expected goals more than their opponents without winning. Aston Villa, Chelsea and Crystal Palace are three of the four sides to whom this has happened twice.
Arsenal are the other. The problem for the Gunners is it’s now occurred in consecutive weekends, leaving them unable to take advantage of Liverpool’s draws. Based on chances for and against, Arsenal earned 2.94 expected points at Fulham then 2.42 against Everton on Saturday.
That will be little consolation to Mikel Arteta as his side drew both games. But even though they’re not flowing in open play, Arsenal dominated the matches. Don’t write them off prematurely based on these results.
Isak still the guy for Eddie Howe
Alexander Isak is off the Golden Boot pace. He’s scored seven Premier League goals this season as Erling Haaland and Mohamed Salah have bagged 13.
The Swede scored and set up Jacob Murphy in Newcastle’s 4-0 romp against Leicester on Saturday, to continue a fine run of form though.
Isak has six goals in his last eight league games, with one of those appearances only lasting 21 minutes due to injury. Include international football and the 25-year-old has scored eight times, with four assists, across the last 10 games in which he played more than an hour.
From a betting perspective, Isak is remarkably consistent. Only against the might of Azerbaijan has he scored twice in 2024/25, with those eight recent goals spread across eight games. But, backing him to score looks like a winner written blind.
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