We’re into the home straight of the 2023/24 Premier League title race. With just eight fences left to negotiate, Liverpool are top and Paddy Power’s evens favourites to be there when the final whistle blows on the season on May 19.
But the Reds have two of the best teams in Europe on their tail. Any slip from Jurgen Klopp’s men will allow Manchester City (2/1 for the title) or Arsenal (11/4) to pounce.
All three teams will probably drop points somewhere. In the last two decades, there have only been three instances of a club who were in the top three at this point winning their final eight games. Even getting at least 20 points only occurred 11 times in our sample of 60.
Let’s look at the factors at play and which team they favour.
History after 30 games
The team in pole position after 30 matches almost always wins the Premier League. Only two of the last 20 Premier League leaders at this point didn’t finish top of the pile. One of the exceptions was recent, and the other was legendary.
Last season, Arsenal took just 11 points from their final eight games, the joint fifth fewest by a top three team in the last two decades. City went from three points behind to finish five in front, and that was when only taking one point from their final two games.
City fans will recall the other example, as it occurred in 2011/12 as Manchester United’s stumbles enabled Sergio Aguero to win the league in stoppage time against QPR. If Liverpool can maintain their current form, they should win a 20th top flight title.
Factor favours: Liverpool
European football
Staying in Europe should make domestic competitions harder to win. City proved otherwise last season, and Liverpool won both their last eight games and the Champions League in 2019, but a quieter schedule helps in a tight title race.
The Reds are 10/11 favourites to lift the Europa League trophy in Dublin, while City (7/4) lead the outright market from Arsenal (5/1) in the Champions League. More pertinently in the short term, Liverpool are 2/9 to get past Atalanta in their quarter-final, while the other two are 40/85 and 20/23 to power beyond Real Madrid and Bayern Munich respectively.
On that basis, Arsenal are the likeliest to stumble at the next European hurdle, and may gain an advantage. But if they get through, they could face City in the semis, and that would surely benefit Liverpool.
Factor favours: Probably Arsenal
Fixture order by weekend
There’s no easy way to quantify this but it stands to reason the team playing last faces more pressure, assuming the other two contenders have already won.
City go first in the next two match weeks, but then miss out entirely as they play Chelsea in the FA Cup semi-final. At that point, it’s Arsenal’s turn to play the first for two fixtures, before Liverpool get the opportunity on the weekend of April 27.
The order of fixtures for the final three match weeks is yet to be revealed. However, if Klopp’s team reach the Europa League semi-final, they are guaranteed to be playing on Sundays for the first two, so likely won’t play their league game first. With City carrying a game in hand, possibly up until the final midweek of the season, this factor is likely to favour the Gunners if anyone.
Factor favours: Probably Arsenal
Injuries
Fitness problems are the great unknown in any season. Arsenal were going great guns until they lost William Saliba last season, and would likely suffer if he were absent again.
Mikel Arteta has kept the most consistent starting XI of our three contenders, averaging 1.9 changes between league games with City and Liverpool at around the 2.8 mark. The Gunners also have the fewest injuries at present, albeit only one fewer than the defending champions.
But this factor could indirectly aid Liverpool. They have by far the most injuries, but should welcome back the likes of Trent Alexander-Arnold, Alisson Becker and Diogo Jota shortly, to provide Klopp’s squad with a boost for the run-in. Being able to use rested players could prove crucial.
Factor favours: Arsenal at present, maybe Liverpool in the long term
Remaining fixture difficulty
If we look at the points-per-game averages at home or away as appropriate for the teams our three title hopefuls have yet to face, City have the easiest run-in at this point. Their opponents combine for an average of 1.43 points per game, with Liverpool next on 1.50 and Arsenal third on 1.62.
But this is constantly changing as matches tick by. After this weekend, the Reds have the easiest remaining schedule for the next three weeks, before the advantage switches to the Gunners.
Even then, the numbers are not set. For instance, if Fulham beat Newcastle at home this weekend, they will then become a tougher match by this measure for Liverpool who go to Craven Cottage in two weeks.
The picture is blurred by City’s hardest remaining game (at Tottenham) needing to be rearranged thanks to their involvement in the FA Cup semi-final. As we can only call it as we currently see it, though, it’s advantage City.
Factor favours: City (for now)
Conclusion
Apart from having the best striker, the most creative player, one of the all-time managerial greats in charge and more money than they know what to do with, there’s not much going for City, is there?
As both history and the difficulty of the remaining games for the next few weeks point in Liverpool’s direction, they look worthy favourites as things stand. But if they advance in Europe and Arsenal do what they so often have in the past – get knocked out by the first decent team they face – it could be back in the Gunners’ hands.
Exciting, isn’t it? It certainly beats the City procession we usually see.
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
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