Ladies and gentlemen, we might just have ourselves a title race in 2023/24. In only three previous Premier League seasons have the top three collectively amassed more points after eight match weeks.
In the most recent instance (2018/19) the title was settled by a single point, while the time before (2011/12) needed a 94th minute goal from Sergio Aguerooooooo on the final day to split the two Manchester sides.
Interestingly, the other example occurred in the season in which Arsenal became invincible – you can back them at 40/1 for a repeat if you have ultimate faith in Mikel Arteta and his lads.
A far more realistic aim for the Gunners is winning the league, for which they are priced at 7/2. Despite Arsenal beating Manchester City last time out, dealing a second successive league defeat to Pep Guardiola’s side for the first time in five years, the defending champions remain favourites for the title, at 8/11.
MANCHESTER, ENGLAND – MAY 20: Manchester City supporters celebrate their side winning the Premier League title with a cardboard cutout of Josep ‘Pep’ Guardiola, manager of Manchester City, wearing a Viking-themed helmet featuring the name of Erling Haaland following Arsenal’s 1-0 loss away at Nottingham Forest, at Etihad Stadium on May 20, 2023 in Manchester, England. (Photo by James Gill – Danehouse/Getty Images)
Liverpool (5/1) are third in the market, and the Reds look to have improved on last season by using midfielders who can actually run. It’s an interesting strategy and it might just work.
You may have noticed there’s been no mention of the league leaders. Tottenham Hotspur have made their best start to a league campaign since before new manager Ange Postecoglou was born yet Paddy Power makes them 10/1 to finish top in May, an implied probability of 7.8 per cent.
Are those odds fair considering how well Spurs have started 2023/24?
The history
To begin our assessment of Tottenham’s chances, a quick history lesson. Tottenham have earned 20 points so far and there have been 17 previous instances of a team having this record at this stage of a Premier League season since 1995/96.
Of those that did, five (29 per cent) won the title, including City last season. Another six finished as runners-up – Tottenham are available at 4/1 for a top two finish – while three finished third and one took fourth.
That leaves just Aston Villa in 1998/99 and Leeds United three years later who started this well and finished no better than fifth. Spurs are odds-on (5/6) to finish in the top four this season, but their fans will be dreaming of more than that.
The underlying numbers
While the history of 20-point starts gives Tottenham a fighting chance of winning the big one, a look under the bonnet at their underlying expected goal numbers immediately pours cold water on their hopes.
The last six Premier League champions had an average expected goal difference (xGD) of +1.29 per game and always at least +0.82.
At this point, Spurs’ record stands at +0.54 per match, a fair way off that pace. There have been five instances since 2017/18 of a team finishing between Tottenham’s current xGD mark and +0.58, and the best any of them managed was a third-place finish (Chelsea in 2018/19).
The match-by-match data for 2023/24 tells a similar tale, as it suggests Tottenham should be fifth rather than first.
It’s fair to ask if they’ve ridden their luck a little excessively too.
For instance, Manchester United missed four Opta-defined big chances against them, with three at 0-0. If they score first, do Spurs win the game? Perhaps, as they have already recovered two victories and two draws from losing positions this term.
One of them was a home game against newly promoted Sheffield United, in which they were losing as late as the 97th minute. With more added time being played this season, there’s more opportunity for such comebacks but leaving it that late is not a sustainable strategy.
And then we get to the infamous Liverpool match. The fact the visitors compiled more expected goals when two men down than Spurs did when it was 11 versus 11 does not show their performance in a good light.
VAR 1: “Shall we draw the lines?”
VAR 2: “Do we have to?”
VAR 1: “Fair enough. Offside it is.” pic.twitter.com/5bX6aKyyko
— Paddy Power (@paddypower) September 30, 2023
Of course, the fact they were lucky doesn’t matter now the points are in the bag. They may not be so fortunate with similar performances in future though.
The fixtures
There are various methods to assess the difficulty of a team’s fixtures. One system is to look at the points-per-game (PPG) average of the clubs they’ve faced, factoring in whether they were at home or away as appropriate.
By this measure, Tottenham have had comfortably the easiest start of any team in the 2023/24 Premier League.
Their opponents have averaged just 0.79 PPG, at least 0.24 less than the opposition for any other team and exactly half of what Liverpool have had to face.
If you multiply each team’s own PPG by that of their opponents to get their relative performance (as SoccerStats do) then you find Tottenham have only made the 10th best start, sandwiching them between Manchester United and Fulham.
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Do either of those sides sound like potential champions to you? Thought not.
Speaking of Fulham, they provide Tottenham’s next opponents, in the Monday Night Football. Spurs are hot favourites to win that game, and probably will, but it’s another game against a team Paddy Power predicts will finish in the bottom eight of the table, as five of Tottenham’s first eight matches have been.
With plenty of tougher matches lying in wait, questions will linger about Spurs’ title credentials for a while yet.
*All odds quoted are correct at time of publication but subject to change
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