Football tips: Infogol’s 3 best bets for Crystal Palace v Burnley on Monday

Burnley and Draw Double Chance

Crystal Palace were completely dismantled by Premier League champions Liverpool in midweek, managing just three attempts totalling 0.09 xG in a 4-0 hammering at Anfield.

That loss signified an abrupt end to Palace’s four-game win streak, but they return home for the first time in ‘Project Restart’, looking to conclude their campaign with the same verve as last season (W4, D1, L1).

Palace’s underlying numbers have significantly declined from last season, though, currently sitting 15th in Infogol’s xG table with a -18.9 expected goal difference (xGD).

Roy Hodgson’s side possess the worst attack in the league according to expected goals (1.06 xGF per game), while finding it difficult to stop opponents creating chances (1.68 xGA per game) – a combination that often leads to a relegation scrap.

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Burnley quickly rebounded from their 5-0 defeat at Manchester City last week by beating Watford 1-0 at Turf Moor on Thursday night (xG: BUR 1.07 – 0.84 WAT).

Sean Dyche’s side were bang in form prior to the league’s three-month hiatus, entering the break on a seven-game unbeaten run, while possessing an intimidating attacking unit that averaged 1.52 xGF per game.

Jay Rodriguez to score anytime

Surprisingly, Burnley rank sixth in non-penalty big chances (35%+) created this season, amassing 46 in 31 Premier League games.

That number accounts for 15% of all shots the Clarets have attempted, which is the highest proportion in the league.

Burnley’s preferred forward duo Chris Wood and Ashley Barnes remain on the sideline, but Jay Rodriguez has proven to be an adequate replacement for either when given an opportunity, averaging 0.34 non-penalty xG per 90 minutes this season.

Both Teams To Score

It should be noted that Burnley have been uncharacteristically vulnerable at the back away from home, though, allowing chances equating to an average of 1.57 xGA per game.

Burnley wasted a plethora of scoring chances in November’s reverse fixture, losing 2-0 at Turf Moor despite dominating proceedings (xG: BUR 2.26 – 0.92 CRY) – recording the second-lowest ‘Fairness Rating’ of the Premier League season.

Crystal Palace are expected to pose a bigger threat here than they did that day, but Burnley’s potential to create scoring opportunities indicates this game may be more open than the betting markets suggest.

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