The biggest and best league in the world is back with games almost every day for the next few weeks. That makes this a perfect time to get to grips with daily Premier League fantasy football – honestly, who can even remember who they picked at the start of the season for their other team?
If you want a breakdown of scoring it’s available here – goals are still king, but a few more stats matter in daily fantasy over the season-long games.
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This Saturday brings a three-game main slate Paddy Power Fantasy – and you can enter a special £1,000 free contest for it here – with each starting at a different time, so here’s a pro-tip: make sure to check your lineups to see who’s in and who’s out before each game kicks off.
A quick look at the odds from PaddyPower.com on each of the games can tell us which teams we should be targetting for good value picks, and who we should be avoiding like your Facebook-spamming, conspiracy nut uncle:
SATURDAY’S DAILY FANTASY SLATE
Brighton (2/1) v Arsenal (13/10)
West Ham (5/2) v Wolves (11/10)
Bournemouth (6/4) v Crystal Palace (15/8)
Arsenal and Wolves as away favourites stand out immediately, but let’s look at some players worth owning this week.
Forwards to Target
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang: Aubameyang already had his return to action with a game against Manchester City on Wednesday, in which Arsenal were thoroughly dominated. He should fare better in this match, as Arsenal take on 15th placed Brighton.
Brighton rank 11th in terms of goals allowed and shots allowed per game, according to WhoScored.com. Auba is second in goals in the league with 17. He hasn’t been just a goal scorer though, as he is second on Arsenal in crosses with 73. The Gabon international also has the best anytime goal scoring odds on the slate at around 10/11.
He has a resilient floor for a forward, making him playable in all formats.
Adama Traoré: Traoré is another expensive forward option, one that offers something different compared to Aubameyang. He gets most of his points through peripheral statistics. His dynamic pace and dribbling ability allow him to get crosses away and draw fouls. He averages over six crosses and two fouls drawn per 90 minutes, according to Rotowire.
Wolves are the biggest favourite on this slate against a West Ham team fighting relegation. They’ve allowed the fourth-most goals in the league and the seventh most crosses per game. Traoré’s upside comes through assists, as his seven are the fourth most in the Premier League. He is one of the most exciting in the league, and even more exciting when he’s in your lineup.
Callum Wilson: Wilson is a cheap player with goal-scoring upside. This hasn’t been his best season to date, with seven goals in 27 league games, but did have 14 in 30 games last season. Perhaps the layoff will help him rediscover his goal scoring form. It is a decent spot for him against Crystal Palace, who have allowed the eighth most shots per game in the league. Wilson is +145 to score at anytime, good odds for a player this cheap. He makes for a good tournament punt play.
Midfielders to Target
João Moutinho: Moutinho is in a great spot this week. He’s seventh in the Premier League in crosses with 182 this season. He gets to face a porous West Ham defence that has allowed 50 goals this season. West Ham are also the fifth-worst possession team in the league. Moutinho takes nearly every set piece for Wolves, and should have lots of opportunities with the dead ball in this game.
He also creates 2.33 chances per 90 minutes and contributes defensively with over one tackle won and interception per 90 minutes. He is as safe of a play as there is on this slate.
Aaron Mooy: A player who has come into his own at his new club is Aaron Mooy at Brighton. He has taken over a role on set pieces, which has led to him getting over five crosses per 90 minutes. The matchup against Arsenal is actually better than it appears at first glance. Arsenal have allowed the sixth-most crosses per game in the league, and the fifth-most shots per game. Brighton also have a higher possession rate than Arsenal.
These metrics suggest that this match will be closer than the statures of the teams. Mooy would benefit greatly if Brighton were able to attack effectively, getting crosses and creating chances.
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Luka Milivojević: Milivojević offers one of the most unique skillsets for daily fantasy football. Most of his value comes through being the set-piece taker for Crystal Palace, leading them in crosses with 127. Where his upside comes in is the fact that he takes penalties for Palace as well.
He has only two goals this season, but the penalties have helped him score over ten goals each of the past two seasons. It’s a good matchup for him against Bournemouth, who have allowed the fifth-most goals, fifth-most crosses per game and second-most shots per game. Milivojević fits all types of lineup constructions and will pay off if he can find his goal-scoring form again.
LONDON, ENGLAND – AUGUST 03: Luka Milivojevic of Crystal Palace during the Pre-Season Friendly match between Crystal Palace and Hertha BSC Berlin at Selhurst Park on August 3, 2019 in London, England. (Photo by Marc Atkins/Getty Images)
Defenders to Target
Ruben Vinagre: The defenders on this slate are lacking the two big fantasy options we usually look towards in Trent Alexander-Arnold and Lucas Digne. So we have to dig a bit deeper. Vinagre of Wolves could be a play here. He actually plays further forward than most defenders, really playing as a left midfielder. He crosses a decent amount, averaging over four per 90 minutes. We know that West Ham are a poor defensive team, so the chances for an assist are better than against an average Premier League team. He also gets defensive stats to add to his fantasy outlook.
Diego Rico: Rico is the lone defender on this slate who consistently gets set pieces for his team. With Bournemouth’s normal set-piece taker Ryan Fraser not playing due to a contract dispute, Rico could have a large role on the dead balls. His opponents, Crystal Palace, give up the second most crosses per game with 24. A tournament stacking option would be Rico and Callum Wilson, who’s a tall striker who could get on the end of some of these crosses.
Goalkeepers to Target
Aaron Ramsdale: Ramsdale’s opponent is one we want to target with goalkeepers. Crystal Palace have scored just 26 goals in the league this season, only ahead of Norwich and Newcastle’s 25. They are also the only team in the league who average less than ten shots per game. The danger of them scoring lots of goals and blowing up Ramsdale is fairly minimal.
Mat Ryan: It’s not a great spot for Mat Ryan and Brighton, but Arsenal aren’t nearly as scary as they have been in years past. They sit in ninth place, and are eighth in goals scored. Ryan is just a cheap option you can pay down for at the highest variance position in daily fantasy soccer where the results seem to make little sense.
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