Real Madrid find themselves five points behind league leaders Barcelona coming into this match while Valencia are in a battle for the final European places.
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It’s 12 years since Valencia won at Santiago Bernabeu, can they pull off a surprise victory at the Estadio Alfredo Di Stefano while the Bernabeu gets a facelift?
Handicap: Real Madrid -1
Real’s home record is very good, they’ve lost just one of their last 15 home La Liga matches, and so far this season, out of 14 league games, they’ve won 10 and drawn four. They’re massive favourites here at 1/3 as the away side haven’t won any of their last five away matches.
The handicap -1 at around Evens looks good here; Valencia have lost 3/4 previous away matches by two goals or more and even though Valencia do give Real a good go when visiting the capital city Real’s home scoring and Clean Sheets record is swinging us towards this pick.
EIBAR, SPAIN – NOVEMBER 24: Luka Modric of Real Madrid duels for the ball with Gonzalo Escalante of SD Eibar during the La Liga match between SD Eibar and Real Madrid CF at Ipurua Municipal Stadium on November 24, 2018 in Eibar, Spain. (Photo by Juan Manuel Serrano Arce/Getty Images)
Real have won their two most previous home La Liga matches by two clear goals, 4/8 previous La Liga matches by two as well and with them eager to close the gap between themselves and Barcelona Zidane’s men will be eager to restart their campaign with a statement of intent.
Over 1.5 Madrid Second-Half Goals
Real Madrid have scored 61.6% of their goals in the second half of La Liga matches this season, indeed over their five most previous home matches they’ve only scored three first-half goals and all of them came in the same match.
Valencia’s away second-half performances haven’t been great either, they’ve conceded 13 second-half goals over their 13 away La Liga matches and while that’s obviously one goal per game we should see most of the action occurring in the second half here so we’re backing Real to Score two goals or more in the second half at Evens or better.
Dani Carvajal to be Booked
You’d expect Sergio Ramos to be getting the nod here but Ramos has only ever picked up four bookings over 28 career matches against Valencia, it would seem Madrid’s captain has some kind of respect for Valencia. Unlike his teammate Dani Carvajal.
MADRID, SPAIN – JANUARY 19: Dani Carvajal of Real Madrid CF reacts during the La Liga match between Real Madrid CF and Sevilla FC at Estadio Santiago Bernabeu on January 19, 2019 in Madrid, Spain. (Photo by Denis Doyle/Getty Images)
Carvajal seems to have it in for the Andalusians. He’s faced them 11 times in a Real shirt and has picked up five bookings. That means, in term of odds, this should be closer to 5/4, so we should snag some value on this one and that’s why we’re going with the Spanish international to be booked.
These picks in a Same Game Multi add up to an 8/1 punt on PaddyPower.com
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