Atalanta’s sparkling style of football is no longer a secret but teams are still struggling to stop Gian Piero Gasperini’s team. Infogol calculates that the team from Bergamo boasts the best attack, and the best process in the league, and by some distance.
Atalanta have recorded a lower xG than their opponents on just three occasions in Serie A this season – drawing on all three of those occasions – demonstrating just how potent their attack is.
Gasperini’s side are currently averaging 2.44 xG per game – higher then Liverpool, Real Madrid and Barcelona – and will take a huge amount of stopping of firing on all cylinders.
AC Milan look to have steadied the ship somewhat under Stefano Pioli following his unpopular appointment in October. Milan are unbeaten in their last four matches and, while they do not boast the attacking attributes of Atalanta, they are looking much more accomplished at the other end of the field.
Pioli’s team are the fourth stingiest team in Serie A according to xGA, allowing chances equating to an average of just 1.24 xGA per game.
The Rossoneri couldn’t make the most of their dominance over Sassuolo at the weekend, but deserved more than a stalemate, generating their third-highest xG of the season (2.14).
AC are undoubtedly going in the right direction under Stefano Pioli, despite the initial reluctance of the fans, but Atalanta should have too much for them here and, with Infogol finding value in backing the hosts.
Paderborn’s meteoric rise looks to have peaked after two consecutive promotions saw Steffen Baumgart’s side go from the third tier to the very pinnacle of German football. Unfortunately, they currently prop up the Bundesliga after amassing just nine points from a possible 48 so far this season.
Paderborn were somewhat fortunate to earn a point at home to Union Berlin last week after creating chances equating to just 1.19 xG, while allowing Berlin 2.06 xG. Creating chances has been a problem for Paderborn this season with their average xG a measly 1.21.
Eintracht Frankfurt have not been fairing an awful lot better of late and are winless in their last six. They will be aggrieved not to have taken at least a point against
Schalke last week after creating 1.14 xG to the home side’s 0.95, in what was the least ‘fair’ result of the weekend in the Bundesliga.
In a league of lethal attacking lines, Frankfurt boast the fifth most dangerous, and that could spell problems for the home side here.
Adi Hütter’s side will be desperate to get back on track in the league and it could be a case of wrong place at the wrong time for Paderborn.
Infogol thinks the value play in this game is to back the visitors to snap out of their slump.
It has been difficult to know exactly what you are going to get from Levante this season. The one thing you can usually guarantee, however, is goals. The Valencian team have shared 23 goals between themselves and their last six opponents, scoring 10 and conceding 13.
Paco López’s side are somewhat fortunate to be in the league position that they are according to our expected positions table and that was demonstrated at the weekend as they snatched an undeserved late winner against Granada (xG: GRA 1.43 – 1.16 LEV).
Defending is certainly not Levante’s strong suit and that is reflected by their position at the bottom of Infogol’s xGA table, but they do have something about them going forward, with only seven teams in the league rating more dangerous in attack.
Celta Vigo may feel aggrieved that a few more results haven’t gone their way this season, and Infogol tend to agree, with Celta sitting in 10th place in our expected positions table. That doesn’t change the fact that they are in a fight for survival however, and their recent form doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence that can turn things around.
Celta showed improvement against Mallorca last week, creating chances equating to 2.72 xG, while limiting their opponents to 1.76 xG. They could only manage a 2-2 draw however in a vital game between two struggling teams.
Levante are unpredictable but are a big price at home to a team really struggling for form at the minute, and given their attacking capabilities, they look a good bet at 6/4.
*All prices correct at time of posting