Saturday’s Boxing Tips:
8pm – Rhiannon Dixon v Karen Elizabeth Carabajal
Karen Elizabeth Carabajal by KO/TKO
9pm – Ellie Scotney v Segolene Lefebvre
Draw
10pm – Jordan Gill v Zelfa Barrett
Zelfa Barrett to Win by Points or Decision
Will Both Fighters Be Knocked Down? Yes
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
Jordan Gill and Zelfa Barrett are within touching distance of a world title shot but first they face each other at the Manchester Arena on Saturday in an unofficial, but genuinely blockbuster, match-up.
On the undercard, Ellie Scotney and Segolene Lefebvre fight to become a unified super bantamweight champion, while Rhiannon Dixon and Karen Elizabeth Carabajal scrap over a vacant lightweight strap.
Rhiannon Dixon v Karen Elizabeth Carabajal
TV: DAZN, Saturday, 8pm
Karen Elizabeth Carabajal KO/TKO
In the lightweight division, Rhiannon Dixon and Karen Carabajal have the chance to become world champions for the first time on Saturday. Dixon, a southpaw, has lots of potential, but with only nine professional contests and no notable amateur record, she’s inexperienced.
The odds imply a big hometown bias again but Carabajal’s only loss in 23 bouts is to Katie Taylor, and I think the rough, tough Argentine to win by KO is worth a punt.
Ellie Scotney v Segolene Lefebvre
TV: DAZN, Saturday, 9pm
Draw
Elli Scotney and Segolene Lefebvre each hold a piece of the super bantamweight crown and this weekend one of them can unify the division. Scotney became world champion after only seven professional contests and now is unbeaten in eight, while Lefebvre is unbeaten in 18 but it is her first time fighting outside of her native France.
The Londoner was a top amateur and is improving as a pro, but she has been in some close fights she was expected to win easily. Paddy has completely written off Lefebvre but she’s decent, and in women’s championship boxing with 10 two-minute rounds fights are often close. I’m backing the draw at big odds.
Jordan Gill v Zelfa Barrett
TV: Dazn, Saturday, 10pm
Zelfa Barrett Points Or Decision
On paper, Jordan Gill and Zelfa Barrett have had similar careers to this point, both have about 30 wins and two losses, both have been the European titleholder, they are 29 and 30 years old respectively, and a super featherweight world title shot is just around the corner for the winner.
Barrett has already had one crack at a world title, in 2022 the Manchester fighter met Shavkat Rakhimov, but after a positive start where he dropped the Tajikistani, he eventually was stopped in the ninth round. Two solid wins have got Zelfa back in the conversation for global honours.
After competing in the featherweight division for years, and ultimately getting battered by Kiko Martinez in the first defence of his European title, Gill found himself in a dark place emotionally in 2023. But with some help from his title-holding mate Leigh Wood, ‘The Thrill’ changed camps and moved up a division, and then in December he went to Belfast and dismantled former world title challenger Michael Conlan in seven rounds.
Despite the move up in weight seeming to suit Gill, he is considered the smaller man against Barrett. Zelfa is a sharp puncher and, with Gill having been stopped and dropped on a few occasions, Paddy has installed the hometown boxer as the betting favourite.
Another point of comparison is their respective performances against Martinez is that Gill was stopped in four rounds, while Barrett edged a close contest on decision. Jordan and his team will put those losses and vulnerabilities down to being weight-drained, but I think the Cambridgeshire man is a bit delicate around the chops.
As a skilful boxer, Gill should be able to navigate around toe-to-toe dust-ups but he seems to be drawn to a scrap, and despite Barrett’s natural ability and schooling he can drift through rounds and allow opponents a foothold. In the end I think it adds up to a back-and-forth barnburner in the main event in Manchester.
I can see the action ebbing and flowing, knockdowns, and two men digging deep, but I don’t see a definitive conclusion. I expect that after 12 rounds it will be a close call on the judges’ cards, with Barrett’s power-punching being enough to earn him the win on points.
Will Both Fighters Be Knocked Down? Yes
Gill has a lowly KO ratio of 32% and he isn’t known for his power, but quite a few of his knockouts have come against his bigger-name opponents, and in his one fight up at super featherweight he dispatched Conlan.
Barrett doesn’t have any KO wins since August 2018, but he has sent three of his last five opponents to the canvas, including the world-class Rakhimov.
Gill’s vulnerabilities have been obvious in his career but Barrett has also been dropped by a couple of foes. In a close fight, I see going 12 rounds, there is always the chance for a knockdown or two and Paddy is offering a very nice price on both men to touch down on Saturday.
Saturday’s Boxing Tips:
Rhiannon Dixon v Karen Elizabeth Carabajal
Karen Elizabeth Carabajal by KO/TKO
Ellie Scotney v Segolene Lefebvre
Draw
Jordan Gill v Zelfa Barrett
Zelfa Barrett to Win by Points or Decision
Will Both Fighters Be Knocked Down? Yes
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
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