To this point, we’ve not been firing on all cylinders. In a sense, rationale won’t get you winners in this league, because two rookies, Sam Bradford and Trevor Siemian are the only unbeaten QBs in football. I’m going to adopt my baseball strategy for gambling – one that’s proved highly fruitful in the past.
So, odds are compiled based on probability. They take a lot of things into consideration – but the aspect I’m focusing on is averages. By looking at rosters at the start of the season, I gave each team a finishing record. To factor this into my gambling, I find a matchup where two teams sharing a particular result would complement the overall standings. With that in mind, let’s take a look at this week’s games.
The 49ers were a 6-10 team in my book. They’re currently 1-3. That was before their best player, Navarro Bowman, tore his Achilles. They’re now a 4-12 team. The Cardinals are an 11-5 team that have already lost 3 times. Carson Palmer is still in the concussion protocol, but they have the best safety valve in the NFL in David Johnson and he hasn’t seen enough of the ball yet. The price is fair, and I’m happy to take it.
The Cleveland Browns are a 2-14 team, make no mistake. They’ll be picking first in the draft next year. They host New England, or more to the point – they host Tom Brady. He’s ready to make a statement – and if you don’t think he’s going to be fired up, you obviously don’t know the man. He’s going to take the Browns apart piece by piece. Oh, and Mr. Gronkowski is back to full mobility now. 10.5 points isn’t enough for Cleveland. They’re still the best team in the NFL and they’re about to get a whole lot better, coming off an embarrassing loss. I have no fear about them going 4-1.
Looking at the Motor City – Detroit aren’t a great team, but there’s so many non-great teams this year that the records have to even out, and I like the Lions to go 8-8. Let’s even up the books somewhat in week 5. I know, I know – they’re playing the 4-0 Eagles. But if you’d told me that the Eagles would be anything above 9-7 this year, I’d have laughed at you. In saying that, let’s give Detroit the points to be safe.