*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change
As we go into an Ireland-less Eurovision final for what feels like the 100th contest in succession, Irish viewers are left with a double blow – it appears we don’t have our usual crumb of comfort in the UK paying for their entry into the final only to finish last… This year with Sam Ryder’s “Spaceman” they have a legitimate contender to vie for the win.
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They have hovered around the top three positions in the betting for the last few months with the entry expected to perform well with the jury vote. If the usual process continues of announcing the jury votes country-by-country before announcing the televote in bulk it could leave the UK in a seemingly very good position but I expect them to fall away then as they won’t receive as many televotes as their rivals.
A country who will pick-up a huge amount of televotes are Ukraine and that is why they are currently such strong favourites to take home the crown. It makes the televote market less of a betting proposition as it usually it is, but one big priced pick worth going with (on the off-chance a Russian cyber attack looks to solely block Ukraine votes) is NORWAY.
Their crowd-pleasing performance “Give that Wolf a Banana” is one of the more memorable entries to look out for this year and gives them a small chance of being the televote winner.
The jury winner market is a more competitive one, currently headed up by UK, followed by Ukraine. Opposing these could prove to be fruitful, and SWEDEN is the alternative to these that has the best case. As always Sweden have delivered a very polished entry and look to continue their history of scoring exceptionally well with the juries. Italy are another in this market worth considering who have a good reputation of being given high scores from juries.
The outright market is so heavily dominated by Ukraine it is worth looking at the Betting Without Ukraine market to have more of a fighting chance. I think Sweden, UK and Spain might struggle in the televote which could push up a surprise contender. SERBIA each-way are a big price here worth consideration.
It is one of the more unique/puzzling performances of the line-up but has been resonating incredibly well with the audience and has been given a prime slot being the penultimate performance of the night so don’t be surprised if it pushes for a Top 5 berth.
Looking at the alternative markets, ITALY Top Big 5 country are worth backing having drifted out to second favourites behind the UK. France and Germany are no hopers here and Spain look far too short a price in most markets leaving it a match bet between Italy and UK. If the UK struggle to perform well with the televote as expected I can see Italy’s entry of “Brividi” edging them out here.
Last but by no means least is the last place market which provides the NAP of the contest. In the last seven contests an auto-qualifier has taken home the wooden spoon and following those trends GERMANY to finish last at odds-against at the time of writing is a very appealing price.
Switzerland, France and Lithuania could give them a run for their money here but Germany have only had the UK to spare their blushes for the last two contests finishing second last on both occasions and they have been placed bang in the middle of the draw at a potentially unlucky 13th slot.
Tele-vote winner: Norway
Jury winner: Sweden
Betting without Ukraine:Serbia (each-way)
To finish in the top 10: Poland, Norway and Serbia
Top Big 5 country: Italy
Match betting:Sweden, Lithuania, Italy and Estonia
Last place: Germany
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