Australian Open Men’s Final betting tips
Jannik Sinner breaks serve first, wins the first set & wins the match
Over 1.5 total tie breaks
Set 1 Correct Score – Sinner 7-6
Australian Open Men’s Final 2025
WHEN: Sunday, 26th January, 8:30am
WHERE: Rod Laver Arena, Melbourne
TV: Eurosport1
Sinner breaks serve first, wins the first set & wins the match
Twelve months have passed since Jannik Sinner became a winning machine and, to the surprise of nobody, he has the chance to notch his third Grand Slam title on Sunday at Rod Laver Arena, where he ominously claimed his first major title.
He has dropped sets along the way, but there remains an inevitability about the world number one which is reminiscent of the man who previously dominated Down Under but bowed out with an injury on Friday, Novak Djokovic.
Sinner has had his serve broken just five times in Melbourne across this fortnight, while Alexander Zverev was breached four times in his quarter-final with Tommy Paul alone.
Zverev also has a worse record at break point throughout the event than Sinner, who is an appealing selection to strike the first blow even if that doesn’t happen in the first set. Should that happen, it would be a massive ask for the German, who is still searching for his first major triumph, to turn it around.
Over 1.5 Total Tie Breaks
While Sinner is perhaps more capable of finding a break of serve, they will likely be few and far between in this contest. The only meeting between the pair in 2024 came in Cincinnati, where the Italian prevailed 7-6 5-7 7-6.
Sinner was battling with his body that night, constantly favouring his hip, and his physical condition may be a slight concern heading into Sunday’s final after he struggled with cramp towards the end of the semi.
Many parallels can be drawn between the upcoming match and the one that took place stateside five months ago, but the biggest difference – its length – works in favour of this bet. With five sets a possibility, two tie-breaks being forced is more than plausible.
Zverev won a couple of them against Paul in the last eight, while Sinner also required two tie-break wins en route to seeing off the big-serving Nicolas Jarry in round one.
Set 1 Correct Score – Sinner 7-6
Tie-breaks are almost mandatory when two elite servers collide, and with these two, that is particularly true early on in matches.
Seven of the last nine Sinner matches to have featured a tie-break have had one in the first set, while for Zverev that is the case for eight of the last 11.
Sinner won the first set 7-6 in the latest H2H and the result of that tie-break was no lottery. Over the last 12 months, Sinner has won 81 per cent of tie-breaks on hardcourts, compared with Zverev’s 54 per cent.
The world number two’s record against players ranked in the top 20 is even worse. He has come out on top in just 38 per cent of tie-breaks against the best individuals, while Sinner’s percentage drops just slightly to 75 on that metric.
A tight first set is well within the range of outcomes, and Sinner’s mental toughness makes him a clear favourite to profit from that.
Tennis tips
Jannik Sinner breaks serve first, wins the first set & wins the match
Over 1.5 total tie breaks
Set 1 Correct Score – Sinner 7-6
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
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