Tennis betting tips
Total Match Games Over 38.5
Alternative Total Sets Over 4.5
Set Betting – Fritz 3-2
Total Match Games Over 38.5
Jannik Sinner and Taylor Fritz were both heavy odds-on in their respective semi-finals because of their skill advantage over their opponents. However, it turned out that conditioning was equally if not more decisive, as Jack Draper couldn’t hold back the vomit in his straight sets defeat by Sinner, and Frances Tiafoe had nothing left to give in the fifth set of his all-American affair with Fritz.
It was a valiant effort from Draper against the world number one but he didn’t possess the ability to hit his spots, nor the stamina to stick with Sinner who was not at his best.
The Italian is a comfortable favourite to lift the trophy, but Fritz is serving well enough to limit his chances of breaking. If the underdog can continue to hold at a rate of almost 92 per cent as he has in this tournament, the way he dominated Alexander Zverev in each of their tie-breaks on Tuesday night will give him the belief that he can deliver in the big moments here.
Alternative Total Sets Over 4.5
Sinner has endured a five-setter in all of the Grand Slams this year except for the US Open, and there is undoubtedly potential for a marathon in Arthur Ashe Stadium on Sunday.
In January, the 23-year-old had to overcome a 2-0 deficit against Daniil Medvedev to notch his first major in Melbourne. He lost in five sets to the same player at Wimbledon, having been beaten 3-2 by Carlos Alcaraz in the French Open semi-finals.
Fritz is also accustomed to going the distance, having done so at every Slam in 2024 including twice at Wimbledon. The Californian showed no signs of fatigue at the end of his triumph over Tiafoe and looks to have plenty left in the tank to go again two days on.
He has tended to play his best tennis in spells during his matches over the last two weeks. For example, he hit 15 winners against three unforced errors in the second set versus Tiafoe, before firing just six winners in the following set with 12 unforced errors. That kind of volatility is exactly what we’re after when looking for five sets.
Set Betting – Fritz 3-2
Sinner has lost two five-set matches this year, and I am not convinced he is completely over the physical problems that have bothered him in 2024. He was seen stretching his hip during the fourth-round match with Tommy Paul, and you wonder if there is still a lingering issue.
He had too much for Draper who was in a constant battle with his body, but Fritz will offer a far more stern test and won’t let up if this one goes long. At Wimbledon, Fritz raised his game in the decider against Zverev to complete a marvellous comeback. Lorenzo Musetti was a bad match-up for him in the last eight but he has shown this week that there are no emotional scars from that disappointment.
Fritz’s best chance of victory is to outlast Sinner, so I’m happy to have a small play on a 3-2 win for him on the biggest day of his career.
Jannik Sinner v Taylor Fritz betting tips
Total Match Games Over 38.5
Alternatives Total Sets Over 4.5
Set Betting – Fritz 3-2
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
Read More
- US Open tennis schedule, odds and prize money for 2024 Grand Slam at Flushing Meadows
The Paddy Power Guide To Safer Gambling – Everything You Need To Know
