US Open women’s final betting tips
Aryna Sabalenka -4.5 Game Handicap
1st Set Score after 4 games – Aryna Sabalenka 3-1
Aryna Sabalenka -2.5 Most Aces Handicap
Aryna Sabalenka -4.5 Game Handicap
Having been denied in back-to-back semis in New York before finally reaching the final in 2023, Aryna Sabalenka is determined not to be defeated at the same stage in consecutive years again as she bids for her first US Open title on Saturday.
The reigning two-time Australian Open champion looks to have peaked at the ideal time after a summer blighted by injuries. She has already beaten Jessica Pegula 6-3 7-5 during this hardcourt season, and if anything her game looks in even better shape now than it did at the Cincinnati Open final.
Sabalenka holds five victories over Pegula in seven meetings and she would have covered the 4.5 game handicap in each of those triumphs. The latest Pegula win came in last year’s WTA Finals at the end of a grueling season. Conditioning will not be a problem for the Belarusian this time around, and she can dominate the sixth seed.
1st Set Score after 4 games – Aryna Sabalenka 3-1
Sabalenka has earned the first break in all but one of her matches at Flushing Meadows this year and will look to strike early in the final. In fact, she has broken in the opening service game of four of her six opponents including the most recent three.
The 26-year-old established a 3-1 lead over Pegula during their encounter three weeks ago, and the American found herself in the same predicament when starting slowly against Karolina Muchova on Thursday.
Pegula’s second serve in particular will come under heavy pressure from Sabalenka, who has demonstrated an ability to generate break points relentlessly.
Aryna Sabalenka -2.5 Most Aces Handicap
Sabalenka’s serve has proved pivotal in each of her hardcourt successes over Pegula. In Cincinnati, she won 31 of 34 points behind her first serve and out-aced the former world number three 10-5.
It was a similar story in Fort Worth in 2022. Sabalenka hit four more aces and lost just seven points on her first serve while Pegula lost 20.
Even Emma Navarro, an elite returner, had very few answers to Sabalenka’s big serving in their semi-final. The second seed registered eight aces – taking her total for the tournament to 30.
Pegula has hit 19 aces herself but has only mustered one since the quarter-finals. It is improved placement rather than power that has seen her win over 71 per cent of first service points in this event.
Sabalenka has had the better of Pegula in the aces department on multiple surfaces in the past, and I see no reason not to back that trend to continue.
Jessica Pegula v Aryna Sabalenka betting tips
Aryna Sabalenka -4.5 Game Handicap
1st Set Score after 4 games – Aryna Sabalenka 3-1
Aryna Sabalenka -2.5 Most Aces Handicap
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
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